The United Nations mission in Mali (Minusma) has never represented a major military actor in the face of jihadist groups, such was not its mandate. His departure, however, opens a gaping security vacuum for the country and the entire Sahel.
The vote of the Security Council, which recorded the end of its mission on Friday at the request of Bamako, confirms the departure of more than 13,000 men who, admittedly devoid of offensive function, contributed in particular to the security of the major cities in the north of the country.
Once this effective departure, the Malian armed forces will have no other partner than the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner group, still presented by the junta as “instructors”.
For experts consulted by AFP, the outlook is bleak. “The security vacuum already exists. But it’s the final blow,” fears Djallil Lounnas, from Morocco’s Al Akhawayn University.
“It was not Saber, nor Barkhane”, he admits, referring to the French anti-jihadist forces deployed until 2022. But the Blue Helmets “covered part of the territory”.
However, it exceeds 1.24 million square kilometres, most of which is semi-desert, neglected for years by the central state.
In these confines beaten by the winds and the sand, power is disputed by the armed groups signatories of the so-called Algiers peace agreement of 2015, never really applied, the Support Group for Islam and Muslims (GSIM , or Jnim according to the Arabic acronym) linked to Al-Qaeda, and the Sahelian subsidiary of the Islamic State (EIS) group.
“Disintegration of the State”
“We are facing a disintegration of the Malian state. These UN troops maintained a semblance of state and order, the last islets will blow up with it, ”adds Djallil Lounnas, seeing a “coalition of armed groups which rely on Al-Qaeda to fight against the ‘Islamic State’.
In Bamako, the discourse is intended to be reassuring. “The departure of the Minusma does not scare us. We have enough to defend the national territory as far as Kidal” (north), assures a Malian officer, convinced that “the Malian army is growing in power”.
But the scattering of the urban centers and the logistical challenge considerably complicate the project.
French analysts and soldiers recall that the late Barkhane (5,500 men) recorded some successes against jihadist groups for nine years. But Bamako has never been able to restore essential services in secure areas.
For its part, “the Malian army carries out almost no military operations on the ground and is often satisfied with air strikes coordinated by […] Wagner. This strategy has its limits,” complains an elected official from Timbuktu (north-west).
For Michael Shurkin, American specialist in the Sahel, “the Malian army is better than before but it is too small and too weak to be in more than one place at the same time”. The soldiers “think that they are in the process of reversing the situation. All the empirical facts say otherwise.
Especially since Wagner’s contribution raises questions. Its future has been in suspense since its leader Evguéni Prigojine went into exile in Belarus after an incredible 24-hour mutiny against the Russian army.
No options
And the group’s record, wherever it has gone on the continent, from the Central African Republic to Mozambique, has been marked more by accusations of human rights violations and various lootings than by the restoration of peace.
In a recent report, the International Crisis Group (ICG) notes that the jihadists have so far not attacked the nine northern cities in which the Minusma had a base. But “the departure of the blue helmets could encourage (them) to review their strategy and to besiege urban centers”.
In the line of fire is a violent face-to-face between a failed state, armed groups and jihadists. Of these three actors, “the Malian state is the least capable of doing anything useful,” says Michael Shurkin.
Especially since the junta is tempted to confront the signatory armed groups. “The withdrawal of Minusma could push Bamako to denounce the Algiers peace agreement, already in danger, or even to seek to attack Kidal, whose insubordination deeply irritates the regime”, notes a senior military official. French.
A disaster scenario: in Mali as elsewhere, the jihadists feed on chaos, and the disappearance of the many jobs provided by the Minusma constitutes an additional factor of insecurity.
Asked by AFP, the African Union did not respond. Minusma will not be replaced by any other external force and Bamako excludes any major regional cooperation.
What give cold sweats to the neighbors of Mali.
“Nobody has an option. I step in, I lose. I do not intervene, I also lose, ”says Djallil Lounnas coldly. “Innovative options are needed but no one knows about them”.