The entry into the race for the Republican nomination of the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, on May 24, to face Donald Trump there before the presidential election of 2024, had an incredible ripple effect.
After the announcement of the candidacy of the ex-governor of New Jersey and former ally of the ex-president, Chris Christie, from New Hampshire on Tuesday, it will be the turn of the ex-vice-president of the United United and target of Donald Trump during the Capitol insurrection, January 6, 2021, Mike Pence, to launch his campaign Thursday evening, from Iowa, after having officially declared his intentions on Monday. Together, they come to expand an increasingly long list of candidates, all of whom hope to prevent the populist from returning to the White House.
The rivals of the billionaire embittered by his defeat in 2020 are becoming less and less shy on the eve of a primary season which must however take off in just over nine months, next February. But this proliferation of candidacies, which is far from over, ultimately does not bode well for Republicans who were hoping for a candidate other than Donald Trump to cross swords again with Joe Biden in the next presidential election.
The more the populist is surrounded by people who want his place, the more his chances of keeping it end up paradoxically increasing.
“The Republican primaries are different from the Democratic primaries because in most states the candidate who gets the most votes collects 100% of the delegates of that state”, explains on the other end of the line the historian specializing in American politics Glenn Altschuler, of Cornell University, joined by The duty. The Democrats, on the other hand, get the share of delegates that corresponds to the share of the vote they received during their primaries.
“In this context, the leading Republican candidate is taking advantage of the split in the vote produced by his opponents to climb to the top of the primaries state after state. And currently, Donald Trump is leading, ”he adds.
It is still too early to know in which direction these primaries will go. That’s going to depend on a lot of things, including what attacks other candidates might be focusing on Donald Trump in hopes of bringing him down.
This explains this, and above all the calm and restraint in the commentary with which Donald Trump’s campaign team welcomes each new candidacy. With the exception, of course, of Ron DeSantis, the ex-president’s most serious rival, who has become the target of regular taunts and discrediting comments from the ex-president.
“Tim marks a big step forward [dans les primaires] compared to Ron [DeSantis]who is totally ineligible, “said the ex-president a few days ago, after Republican Senator Tim Scott entered the race, to whom he wished good luck.
After Chris Christie and Mike Pence this week, several other Republicans should follow suit in the coming days or weeks, also announcing their entry into these primaries. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is expected to do so sooner rather than later, possibly this week. The mayor of Miami, Francis Suarez, the governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu, and the governor of Virginia, Glenn Youngkin, who no longer hide their intention to pose as an alternative to Donald Trump, could follow. Same thing for the ex-governor of Texas Rick Perry, who is thinking of reviving in a third Republican primary, and this, after two unsuccessful attempts in the past.
“In 2016, the Republican primaries took place with a historically high number of candidates,” says Glenn Altschuler. There were 17 before Iowa’s first electoral test, won by Ted Cruz. “These candidacies allowed Donald Trump to collect the largest number of delegates” and to find himself facing Hillary Clinton. And in front of another destiny, for this socialite star of the small screen who was going to end up changing the face of the United States.
Same, but not the same
Seven years later, an almost similar scenario could play out. However, there is a new deal in the equation, with which Donald Trump will have to deal: the numerous legal cases which hover over him and which could come to disturb the race.
Among these: the indictment of the populist by a New York court for falsification of documents, in a story of payment of a bribe, but also that which could occur in the coming days, in the case of top-secret documents that Trump illegally brought home from the White House after his defeat. The justice of Georgia could also launch proceedings against the ex-president for his attempts to have the vote of the presidential election of 2020 canceled, by fraud, in this Southern state.
“It is possible that Donald Trump will face new charges, says Glenn Altschuler, but it is unlikely that these charges will lead to trials during the primaries, or even during the electoral campaign, which could limit their impact on the vote. »
“It is still too early to know in which direction these primaries will go, he adds. That’s going to depend on a lot of things, including what attacks other candidates might be focusing on Donald Trump in hopes of bringing him down. »
Uncertain attacks, but some of which are beginning to emerge within the Republican Party against a former president who presents himself once again, like his 2016 campaign, as unbeatable and essential for the party. A few days ago, during a golf tournament in New Jersey, the billionaire rejected the idea of a debate with the other candidates because of the polls which already announce his victory, according to him.
45% of Republican voters see his candidacy as the strongest for 2024, according to a recent Monmouth University poll. What Eric Levine, one of the party’s main fundraisers, disagrees with. For him, Donald Trump is neither strong nor a candidate tainted by his past results and his legal problems. “It’s a metastatic cancer that, if not stopped, will destroy the party,” he said recently in Politico’s digital pages. Donald Trump is a loser”, but a loser who ultimately always remains in a good position to win the Republican primaries.