The weight of French is decreasing relative to English in Quebec. This observation is based on the evolution of the languages spoken regularly freely at home. The language used freely at home is, in fact, to a very large extent that which is used in the public sphere and which will later be transmitted to children.
To simplify things, we have adopted a linguistic coding of the 2021 census data by weighting the use of French versus English as follows. We give the value 100 to a person who declares using French most often (with or without a third language) and never using English, the value 75 if they use French most often and English second, a value of 50 if she uses both equally, a value of 25 if she uses English most often and French second, and a value of 0 if she only uses English.
This codification ignores third languages and only considers the relationship between French and English. People who use neither French nor English are excluded from the calculation.
The result is that the overall share of French at home has fallen from 87.2% in 2001 to 86.2% in 2016, then to 85.3% in 2021. French therefore first lost a percentage point in 15 years, then another point in the last five years. The downward trend from 2001 to 2016 has therefore accelerated since 2016.
The slight decrease over these fifteen years is mainly explained by the fact that the population of French mother tongue, which speaks French in 97% of cases, no longer reproduces itself and that it is gradually replaced by an allophone population (mother tongue third party) who speaks French in 60% of cases.
This downward trend in French continued from 2016 to 2021, but it was amplified by a sudden reversal in the linguistic practice of allophones. While more and more of them used French from 2001 to 2016, fewer of them used it in 2021 than in 2016.
We naturally looked for the source of this trend reversal on the side of Montreal immigrants, trying to understand why they are less likely to speak French at home since 2016 than before.
The graph shows the answer. It indicates the share occupied by French relative to English within three distinct groups: (1) permanent immigrants admitted at various periods in the past, (2) temporary immigrants, i.e. residents non-permanent persons with a residence permit for studies, temporary work or seeking asylum, as well as their family members, and (3) all non-immigrants.
We note that less than half of the permanent immigrants admitted before 1980, those before Bill 101, regularly used French at home. The majority preferred English. French made considerable gains thereafter, with permanents admitted between 2011 and 2015 using it 74% of the time. This percentage was gradually approaching the rate of use of French by non-immigrants, namely 80%.
But as we can see, the trend has since reversed. The regular use of French at home among permanent immigrants fell by 9 percentage points, from 74% for those admitted in 2011-2015 to 65% for those admitted in 2016-2021.
What about the rate of regular use of French at home among the temporary immigrants present? At 58% in 2021, it was even lower than the 65% proportion posted by permanent immigrants admitted between 2016 and 2021 (many of whom were temporary permanent immigrants). Since temporary immigration programs are administered mainly by the federal government, the language criteria applicable to applicants are less strict. Many of them come from countries where French has little place.
Census data is formal. The regular use of French by permanent immigrants was on the rise until 2016, but it decreased significantly in 2021. In addition, the significant expansion in the number of temporary immigrants since 2016 has accentuated the decline in French.
It is obvious that the task of the Minister of Immigration, Christine Fréchette, must be to rectify the situation, including, if necessary, by fully exploiting the provisions of the 1991 Canada-Quebec Accord on ‘immigration. It must imperatively ensure that, whether permanent or temporary, immigrants to Quebec – at least those who will stay – make the right language choices.