In families in Nigeria and Kenya, food eats up more than 50% of disposable income. It is as if all your pay from the 1er January to mid-July were only used to pay for groceries. In Canada, 40 days of work are enough to eat all year round. This places us, on a global scale, in a most enviable position.
This year Food Freedom Day was February 9, a calculated the Canadian Federation of Agriculture (CFA). In 2020, it was February 8, exactly the same date as in 2017. It never moves much.
Year in and year out, Canadians spend about 11% of their disposable income on food. This is less than in the vast majority of European countries where the average is 13%, according to Eurostat 1.
These statistics make it possible to put the cost of our food into perspective when we learn that feeding ourselves, in 2022, could cost 5 to 7% more than this year.
This is the main prediction of the 12e edition of the Food Prices Report written by a panel of experts from four universities – Dalhousie, Guelph, Saskatchewan and British Columbia – and unveiled this Thursday 2. They had never expected such a large increase.
Concretely, for a family made up of a man and a woman, a teenager and a girl, the most pessimistic scenario (+ 7%) corresponds to a jump of $ 966.08. The bill could thus reach $ 14,767.36, which will force households to re-budget.
In the case of a young family (parents under 30 and a child aged 6 to 11 months), the price of the basket is valued at $ 10,135.25, an increase of $ 663.05. In both cases, no restaurant meals are planned and food waste is limited to 5%, which is very low.
Anyone who purchases online can also expect to pay an additional 2-8% to the amounts shown in this table. Because it is not only the delivery costs to be taken into consideration. “There are additional costs associated with not being able to take advantage of exclusive, discounted in-store items and food promotions, for example, ‘eat tonight’ meals,” the report notes.
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This forecasting exercise is very complex. The factors that influence the price of yogurt, raspberries and pork tenderloin are numerous and often beyond the control of farmers and processors. Droughts, floods, heat waves, diseases, soaring transport costs, labor issues, energy costs, exchange rates, regulations … to which must now be added the impacts of COVID-19 which is forcing the distancing workers in factories and slaughterhouses, which can slow down and increase production costs.
It’s not for nothing that broccoli is $ 2 a week and double the week after. In recent days, some supermarkets have been selling it for $ 6! We’re not that far from the $ 8 cauliflower soap opera in December 2015.
This volatility is likely to be more and more frequent, especially because of climate change, energy costs and the price of inputs. This is where culinary skills and creativity come into play when it comes to staying on budget.
Dairy products and meals served in restaurants are expected to experience the largest price increases (6% to 8% in both cases).
At the end of October, the Canadian Dairy Commission decreed an increase in the price of milk at the farm ($ 0.06 / liter) to allow producers to breathe a bit. This will increase the cost of milk used to make cheese and yogurt by 8.4%. What happens in restaurants is well known: the price of food is soaring along with wages and rents. It would not be surprising if the menus were less varied.
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In terms of good news for consumers, the report forecasts a stabilization of meat prices (+ 0 to 2%) after a year marked by high inflation. Take the kilo of round steak that sold for $ 20.34 in October. A year earlier, it could be bought for $ 17.69, according to Statistics Canada 3.
For Quebec, the report anticipates an overall increase in the price of food below average. “Since food inflation was above average in Quebec this year, it is highly unlikely that this will happen for a second consecutive year,” explains Professor Sylvain Charlebois, co-author of the study.
However, all these forecasts are a growing source of insecurity. And for those who are struggling to make ends meet, the price of a grocery cart elsewhere in the world is little consolation.