Charles Marinakis, president of Century 21 France, notes that in parallel with this drop in real estate prices, credit rates have risen, reaching the 3% mark, whereas they were around 1% there. one year old.
“There is no doubt”real estate prices are falling, but this is not necessarily “something dramatic”, said Monday, April 24 on franceinfo Charles Marinakis, president of Century 21 France. For this real estate professional “it was time for the market to adjust”as prices have risen “by 30% between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2022”. Charles Marinakis explains that this “market reversal has been observed since the summer of 2022, before materializing at the end of 2022 and 2023 is no exception to the rule”.
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At the national level, this drop in prices is “on average around 6 to 7%”but “it would have to decrease by 10 to 12% to adjust the desolvency of household financing”, according to the president of Century 21 France. Charles Marinakis has observed since last year a “regionalization of prices”. It thus notes that certain regions are not affected by this drop in prices, in particular those “which were relatively expensive before the boom years of 2020-2021”, such as the Côte d’Azur. He also notes that a “Part of the West Coast has been a little overwhelmed by an artificial supply that has swept through the markets after the Covid-19 and which has artificially raised prices a little bit”.
In parallel with this drop in real estate prices, credit rates have risen, reaching the 3% mark, whereas they were around 1% a year ago. And this mainly affects “first-time buyers whose level of solvency requires the attention of banks”, according to Charles Marinakis. He also finds worrying “how quickly rates have changed”. The President of Century 21 also recognizes that in this context “there is a little panic, a little too probably” in the real estate sector.
“A problem of land availability”
If professionals warn “for several years” on this real estate crisis, estimating in particular that it is necessary to build nearly 500,000 homes each year for the next ten years, Charles Marinakis deplores “a problem of land availability, a problem of the will to densify construction”. The boss of Century 21 France also says he observes “a kind of positioning of the mayors who were recognized at the time when they were builders, but who today are considered bad boys”. He refuses the idea of building with a “coefficient” valid throughout the territory and prefers that the regions “adapt according to their level of tension in terms of housing”. “There are regions where we don’t need housing, and other regions that are under pressure and there we have to accept the principle of density”, he explains. Charles Marinakis cites in particular “the latest report from the federation of real estate developers which reports 449,000 homes missing each year for ten years”.
The drop in selling prices observed on the real estate market will not necessarily lead to a drop in rents, according to the president of Century 21, due in particular to a “problem of supply and demand”. This “scarcity of rental products” results, according to Charles Marinakis, from a “convergence of cumulative bad measures”. “Today, renting becomes an achievement”, he warns. If the “Natural vacancy rate in housing is around 20 to 25%, today it has halved”, adds this real estate professional. This is explained firstly because the “people who rent can’t find a place to buy or re-let under good conditions and if they don’t leave, they don’t vacate” of accommodation. But Charles Marinakis also points the finger “thermal stresses” : “For some of these homes, the owners not being in the financial or technical capacity to renovate them, they prefer to put them on the sale market”, he notes. In particular, he denounces “the brutality with which it was done and the lack of consultation” on this fight against energy sieves, and in particular the obligations to which owners whose homes have poor DPEs are subject [diagnostic de performance énergétique].