In any electoral campaign, one finds speeches with an ideological flavor, promises of change and progress as well as nostalgic accounts referring to the “glorious” periods of an often idealized past. But, beyond all this artillery and these fireworks, we need a program, a project of lucid society that binds everything together. It is the anchor to which the electorate ends up anchoring last. This decisive element had been sorely lacking in Marine Le Pen with each of her attempts at the French presidential election. A scenario that is likely to be repeated with polemicist Éric Zemmour, now a declared candidate for the 2022 meeting.
Nostalgic speech
It is true that Zemmour succeeds in making a part of the French electorate dream: around 15% according to the latest polls. However, his speech rests largely, if not exclusively, on a plea against immigration considered as the origin of all the evils which beset France. From the eccentric theory of the “great replacement” to historical revisionism on key figures in French history, Zemmour spares nothing to cultivate this nostalgia for “grandiose France” which no longer has its place on the international scene because of immigration. However, this nostalgic momentum is completely disconnected from the reality of his country, which has been experiencing a tangible economic decline for at least two decades linked to the dynamics of the transformations that the world economy has undergone during this period. A dynamic to which several countries, such as Germany or the United Kingdom (as well as Quebec and Canada), have known and been able to adapt, while France is slow to find the means.
Economic reality
Indeed, whether we look at fundamental indicators or other economic indicators, the result is the same. Thus, France’s economic weight in the world has been steadily declining since the early 2000s. Its competitiveness on world markets is crumbling, as evidenced by its recurring trade deficits. Finally, in terms of innovation, France continues to lag behind its European neighbors first and against other dominant economies in the world, including emerging economies. This, not to mention the poor state of public finances: a debt which now peaks at nearly 115% of GDP, one of the heaviest taxes in Europe (or even the world) and a structural public deficit that has persisted for decades. As a reminder, no government in France has presented a balanced budget since 1974!
In this sense, in addition to being reductive, the assumptions, even the excuses, of Zemmour (and of Le Pen before him) on the decline of France largely put on the back of immigration are without foundation: the level of this, at around 10% of the population, cannot explain all the anomalies of the French economy. More so, it is the worst message to send to the market. Because, if the latter is capable of disturbing slippages, it also has virtues. Among these, the fact of always looking to the future, of transcending identity reflexes or those of nostalgia and, even more, those of xenophobia.
Finally, what Zemmour is proposing is not a new program or a promise of real and lucid change: it is rather stagnation, a distressing and costly dynamic observed for several years in this country. This dynamic presented by Zemmour is also reminiscent of a striking editorial from the British magazine. The Economist on the French presidential election about ten years ago and which caused a stir in France.
The title was “A Country in Denial”!