(Oxon Hill, Maryland) In the halls of the conservative CPAC conference, the political face of the Republican Party seemed almost unchanged from the height of Donald Trump’s presidency. Fervent admirers of the former president – often dressed in sequins – jostled for photos with any member of the Trump family who happened to be nearby. The chants “We love Trump!” echoed in the hallways.
But outside the confines of this friendly gathering, Donald Trump and his campaign have begun to adjust to the new reality of 2024. The former president may be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, but he’s no longer sole leader of his party.
After a rocky start, Trump’s team is actively preparing for the possibility of a long primary to choose the Republican candidate for president in 2024. This means that it must organize itself on the ground to participate in a fight potential for delegates which could extend into next year. It also means he has to fight with his opponent, Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, who is on the rise without an official candidate, for donors and support.
It’s tedious work that Trump was slow to undertake during his celebrity-propelled but disorganized 2016 campaign. In 2020, he used his status as an incumbent to scare away any serious challenge.
For this third time, Trump and his organization are focusing on the traditional workings of a campaign. This illustrates the level of competitiveness that is expected in the race for the Republican nomination, despite Donald Trump’s unrivaled status as a former president and his lead in the polls. But the threat of indictment hanging over the former president is just one reason why 2024 could play out in the least traditional way.
PHOTO HAIYUN JIANG, THE NEW YORK TIMES
Donald Trump supporters show their support during the former president’s speech at CPAC.
Mr. Trump said on Saturday that even the indictments would not encourage him to quit the race, while disparaging the prosecutors watching him in Georgia and New York. His speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), the annual showcase of the American right, demonstrated that an element of his political strength endures: the loyalty of vocal activists angry with the party’s old guard.
“I am your warrior. I am your justice,” Trump said in a grievance-studded speech that stretched for more than 90 minutes. “And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution. »
The campaigns are activated
The speech was only Trump’s fourth public event since the start of his campaign nearly 16 weeks ago. But he is now accelerating his public schedule, with planning underway for his first major rally of 2024 and two speeches on his policies taking place this month, according to two people familiar with the planning.
Notably, Ron DeSantis — who is expected to run but has yet to declare his intentions — did not attend CPAC. He instead embarked on a multi-state tour to promote his new book about his governance of Florida as a model for the nation. On Sunday, DeSantis gave a speech about his vision for the party at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California.
Both men have planned trips to Davenport, Iowa, over the next two weeks – visiting the state where the Republican nomination process begins.
PHOTO FROM CHARLIE GEROW’S TWITTER ACCOUNT
Charlie Gerow, Republican strategist and vice president of CPAC
President Trump is still the leading candidate. But it’s a much more open race than it has been in the past.
Charlie Gerow, Republican strategist and vice president of CPAC
Mr. Trump won CPAC’s annual poll by a wide margin, and for the third year in a row, DeSantis was his closest rival. Trump boasted of his victory and vowed to “finish what we started”.
“We had a Republican Party that was run by freaks, neoconservatives, globalists, open-border fanatics, and jerks,” Trump said. But we will never go back to the party of Paul Ryan, Karl Rove and Jeb Bush. »
Paul Ryan, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, recently spoke out against Trump. He sits on the board of Fox News, a network whose recent coverage choices have frustrated the Trump team. Jeb Bush, former Florida governor and 2016 Trump rival, spoke favorably of Ron DeSantis.
Early ads against DeSantis
Publicly and privately, Trump has already begun to lash out at DeSantis, though he didn’t mention it on Saturday. Trump’s campaign spent a small amount this week running its first Facebook ads aimed at DeSantis, including one with a photo of the two men and the caption, “Pictured: An apprentice learning from the master.”
DeSantis has mostly ignored the taunts, though during an appearance on Fox News he sideways tackled the infighting that has plagued Trump’s White House by saying his administration “don’t didn’t have a single leak.
The shift in political dynamics can be seen clearly in the emerging strategy of Operation Trump delegates.
Prior to 2020, the Trump campaign successfully embodied theestablishment party. From their perch in the White House, his advisers shaped party rules at the state level to make it harder for his rivals to rack up delegates. The goal – which they achieved – was to stifle any dissent from the primaries before it could develop.
As 2024 approaches, Donald Trump’s outlook is very different. Remembering the efforts made in 2016 to prevent his victory, the Trump team has multiplied the steps with Republican organizations in the states to shape to its advantage the rules of the convention where the Republican candidate for president will be chosen, as well as than those on the accumulation of delegates.
An unprecedented primary
There is no modern precedent for a former president’s participation in a contested primary, making it difficult to gauge Trump’s political strength going forward.
But there are signs of his diminishing influence within the party. Fundraising from the former president’s base has dropped dramatically. In 2021, when Trump spoke at CPAC in his first major speech after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, he amassed US$3.2 million online in 48 hours. On the same day and the day after his announcement for 2024, at the end of 2023, he raised about half of that sum online – 1.6 million US dollars – according to federal records.
Moreover, some of his most senior collaborators have yet to provide public support. In a private phone call a few weeks ago, Mr. Trump asked Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, his former White House press secretary, to support him, and she replied that She wouldn’t yet, according to two people familiar with the discussion, who asked not to be named. Mr. Trump appeared disappointed, but not angry, on the call, the sources added.
An aide to the governor did not respond to a request for comment, and Steven Cheung, a spokesman for Trump, did not address the issue directly, saying Trump had the support of ‘everyday Americans’. and was “leading by wide margins poll after poll”.
PHOTO HAIYUN JIANG, THE NEW YORK TIMES
Donald Trump gingerbread men were on sale during CPAC 2023.
The staggering amount of Trump-related artefacts at CPAC was a stark reminder of Trump’s unparalleled hold on Republican base activists. The conference exhibit hall was a sort of Trump bazaar. A pro-Trump political action committee set up a replica of the Oval Office lectern, a glittering array of props denying the last presidential outcome were offered for sale, and activists manned a booth urging attendees to support the people prosecuted in the riot of January 6, 2021.
“DeSantis is a great governor, probably the best governor in the nation,” said Sarah Palin, a former Republican vice-presidential candidate. But, she added, “no one can compare to Trump.”