There is an old English expression that says “beware of what you wish” (Be careful what you wish for). American Republicans will soon discover the full meaning of this saying.
It’s been more than 40 years since Republicans forged some kind of alliance with the most conservative religious groups who, before Ronald Reagan’s presidency, weren’t too involved in politics and didn’t vote in large numbers.
Their goal, to have politicians – and above all a president – who would promote “family values” against a too secular state and judges who had banned prayer in schools, recognized the rights of gays and lesbians (as we said in period) and, above all, had legalized abortion.
This marriage was a little unnatural, Reagan was a divorcee who did not attend any church and had signed a very liberal abortion law as governor of California. But regardless, he had adopted the discourse of the religious right. Just like Donald Trump after him.
Of all the priorities of the religious right, the most important was the appointment of conservative judges who would interpret the Constitution strictly and not in a way that extended rights on issues like abortion.
In return, the Republican Party would benefit from the unwavering support of the religious right, which has become an essential part of its electoral base.
It took decades to finally secure a strong Conservative majority on the Supreme Court. And it took a little cheating, like refusing to even consider the appointment of a judge by President Obama in the last year of his mandate and having the choice of President Trump confirmed with full steam a few days before the presidential election.
But the important thing was to finally obtain this clear majority of six Conservative judges against three Liberals. For the first time, a majority that could invalidate Roe v. Wade, the judgment of 1973 which had legalized abortion until the viability of the fetus.
In recent days, the court has finally heard a case that could allow it to overturn the decision Roe v. Wade. A contested Mississippi law that prohibits all abortions after 15 weeks.
According to the most informed observers of the work of the Court, we are moving towards a validation of this law which could take two forms: either by simply invalidating Roe v. Wade, or by validating the law of Mississippi, which would be equivalent to prohibiting abortion after 15 weeks.
Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts appeared to favor the latter option and noted that most countries that have legislated on the issue of abortion have set a time limit beyond which abortion is prohibited.
But he doesn’t say he’ll rally enough of his more conservative colleagues to get a majority. Many seem to think that it is time to put an end to it for good Roe v. Wade.
But beyond legal considerations, it is the political effect of the Court’s decision that is likely to have the most impact. And this is where the adage that we should beware of what we want comes into play.
Americans, about 60%, don’t want us to break Roe v. Wade, a figure that has hardly changed for over 30 years. Conversely, only 20% of Americans believe that abortion should be illegal under all circumstances.
There are therefore great political risks if the Court were to invalidate its 1973 case law. As Judge Sonia Sotomayor said during the hearings: the credibility of the Court will be at stake if citizens come to believe that the law can change according to the political opinion of the judges.
There is also, in this country which likes to describe itself as a land of freedom and diversity, a great reluctance to impose religion and beliefs on one another.
Finally, there is the vote of women – especially that of women in the suburbs of large cities – which often makes the difference in a presidential election. It is they, for example, who were decisive in the defeat of Donald Trump last year.
It is quite possible that the Supreme Court will overturn a decision which has had the status of res judicata for nearly half a century. But it is obvious that there will be a price to pay for the Republican Party which will have put the interests of part of its political base before those of the majority.
Thus the ardent wish of the religious right and its political allies is likely to provoke a brutal reaction of rejection which would have profound consequences on all American politics, including on the reputation of the judiciary.