The debates ended Friday evening in the National Assembly. It is now up to senators to consider the text. But several scenarios are emerging for the adoption of the reform.
The debates are closed. The National Assembly completed, Friday, February 17 at midnight, the examination of the pension reform bill, after 20 days devoted to its first reading. And this even if the deputies did not manage to discuss the key article providing for the decline of the retirement age to 64 years, because of the cloud of amendments. These very strict deadlines result from the choice made by the government to go through an amending budget for Social Security, and to activate article 47.1 of the Constitution.
>> Follow the reactions live the day after the last day of debates in the National Assembly
The Senate must now seize the bill modified by the few amendments voted by the Assembly and accepted by the government. After a week’s break from parliamentary work, senators will also have 15 days to debate, which should lead until around March 12. They will be seized in committee from February 28, then in the hemicycle on March 2, with a high probability of voting on the text. The senatorial majority is clearly leaning to the right and, unlike the Republican deputies, the LR senators are united and in favor of this pension reform.
The key role of the joint committee
In the event of dissension between the versions of the Assembly and the Senate, the text will go to the joint joint committee (CMP) in the week of March 13. Seven deputies and seven senators will then meet to try to reach an agreement on the main measures of the reform. However, the composition of the CMP, which depends on the size of the political groups, is clearly favorable to the government thanks to the agreement reached with the Republicans. In case of agreement, the text found in CMP will still have to be definitively adopted by the Assembly and the Senate. The date has already been set at the Palais-Bourbon: it will be March 16, if necessary.
The most unpleasant surprise for the executive would be for the text to be rejected by one or the other of the two chambers, despite the agreement in the CMP. An unusual situation, but which cannot be excluded because of the relative majority, on the benches of the Assembly, of the macronists. The latter need the votes of the LR deputies, still divided. If the Assembly rejected the reform, Emmanuel Macron could go so far as to dissolve it, to hope to find a stable majority, on this text and the next ones.
The Shadow of Section 49.3
If the CMP does not reach a common text, the reform project will have to make a new shuttle between the two chambers, and the National Assembly will have the last word. This new parliamentary shuttle would also be locked into a tight schedule. Parliament must indeed decide in total in 50 days, i.e. by March 26 at midnight, failing which the provisions of the reform may be implemented by the government by ordinance, as provided for in Article 47.1 of the the Constitution. It never happened.
Finally, the government has one last weapon: to draw article 49.3 of the Constitution to have the text adopted without a vote. On such a flagship reform, nobody wants it in the presidential camp, for fear of being weakened. So far, the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, has therefore chosen to multiply the gestures towards the LR deputies (on the legal age of departure, the revaluation of the small pensions of current retirees or long careers). Hoping to be able to win their support, and see, finally, its reform succeed.