In the general elections of 2014, the liberal leader, Philippe Couillard, flanked by his economic trio formed by Carlos Leitão, Martin Coiteux and Jacques Daoust, pledged to create 250,000 jobs in five years. It seems a long time ago when we won elections by promising to increase the number of jobs. Today, we should rather promise to create workers.
After the presentation of the economic and financial update by the Minister of Finance, Eric Girard, it was the turn of the Minister of Labor, Employment and Social Solidarity, Jean Boulet, to whom François Legault has just entrusted in plus the Immigration portfolio, to unveil the details of its “labor operation”.
The strategy is unprecedented, both in terms of its scope and the nature of the measures envisaged. Thus, the Legault government intends to spend 3.9 billion over five years to counter the scarcity of labor, including 2.9 billion for new spending planned in the minibudget. It is a process in which six departments are involved.
A good part of this new expenditure, namely 1.7 billion, will finance an unprecedented measure: the payment of substantial scholarships intended to influence the career choices of tens of thousands of CEGEP and university students, to which is added the qualification of 55,000 construction workers. The scholarships are attractive and come in addition to the usual loans and bursaries program: $ 9,000, or $ 1,500 per session, for a technical college diploma (DEC); and $ 15,000 for a three-year university program or $ 20,000 for a four-year program, or $ 2,500 per session. The goal is to add 60,000 essential workers in public services, in the health and social services network, in education and in day care services in five years. We also want 50,000 information technology workers and 5,000 engineers to emerge.
The measure is costly because students who are moving towards privileged fields anyway will also be entitled to special scholarships. Prime Minister François Legault indicated that the government’s objective was to graduate 36,000 more students, according to an assessment that is “common sense”, he said, that is to say, pif . If that figure turns out, each of the additional workers will cost the state $ 47,000.
In addition, Minister Boulet has provided an enhanced allowance of $ 475 per week, the equivalent of the minimum wage, for unemployed people who will follow vocational training. However, we do not seem to know what the effect of this measure will be.
Be that as it may, we cannot blame the Legault government, when Quebec companies, but also the public sector, have difficulty in dealing with the scarcity of manpower, of deploying treasures of the imagination. to deal with the situation. Moreover, the government’s actions are not only aimed at increasing the labor pool: various measures are in place to support businesses that invest in the computerization and automation of their processes.
Before the pandemic, the business community was already complaining about the problems that labor shortages caused businesses, especially SMEs. The strong economic growth of the past year, although it is a catch-up, is creating considerable pressure. As economist Mia Homsy, President and CEO of the Institut du Québec, points out, we end up with two unemployed for each vacant position, while this proportion was five to one in 2019. It is expected that there will be two unemployed people. will have 1.4 million positions to fill by 2028. This is double the number of a few years ago. And the bottom line is that 80% of job vacancies are due to retirements, while the strength of the recovery explains the rest. Resorting to targeted immigration can help, but good research shows that its effect on population aging and labor shortages is modest. Unfortunately, this is not a panacea, contrary to what business spokespersons claim.
The context will force companies to produce more value with less labor, more paid labor. We are therefore talking about an increase in productivity. And this also applies to public services. This is the objective of the Legault government and its minister Eric Girard, who want to catch up with Ontario.
Quebec is engaged in a new economic era. It will not be easy. Creating workers, unless you call yourself God, is much more difficult than creating jobs.