Justin Trudeau’s year starts with some yellow lights on the board.
Two figures should concern him. They reveal a slowly rising wave of discontent and they begin to cast a shadow over him.
The first indicator relates to the general mood of Canadians. Those who believe the country is heading in the wrong direction now outnumber optimists. This is shown by a new Nanos poll commissioned by the Globe and Mail. The difference is 3%, which is the margin of error. Nevertheless, this is the first time since Mr. Trudeau came to power in 2015 that the pessimists seem to be the most numerous.
When was the last time the popular mood was so gloomy? In 2013 and 2014, during the end of Stephen Harper’s reign.
Surprisingly, it was in Quebec that respondents were the most positive.
The other bad news concerns satisfaction with the Trudeau government. According to Nanos, 41% of Canadians would consider the balance sheet negative (13% “fairly bad” and 28% “very bad”). Again, this is Mr. Trudeau’s worst result since 2015. And the worst since the end of Mr. Harper’s last term.
Other parallels strike. This year, Mr. Trudeau will celebrate his 10e anniversary as Liberal leader, and his eighth year as Prime Minister. This is also where Mr. Harper was at the end of his reign, Mr. Nanos recalled to the Toronto daily.
Another source of concern for Mr. Trudeau, the New Democratic Party (NDP) is on a modest rise. In 2019 and 2021, the Liberal leader took advantage of the weakness of the troops of Jagmeet Singh, who had collected only 16% and 18% of the votes. The left formation now receives about 25% of the voting intentions. Although third parties tend to lose support in elections because of strategic voting, this revival of the NDP remains a threat to the Liberals. The worst-case scenario for them would be a split in the Progressive vote, if they cap 30% support and the New Democrats break through the 20% wall.
It was through this fragmentation that Mr. Harper won his only majority mandate in 2011. The context was very different – the Liberals had been down for years over the sponsorship scandal and their inexperienced and clumsy leader, Michael Ignatieff, was no match for the charismatic NDP leader in Jack Layton. Still, for Mr. Trudeau, this doesn’t bode particularly great.
That said, for the Liberals, it is still early to panic. Nothing is played.
Mr. Trudeau bought himself time. Thanks to his agreement with the New Democrats, his minority government should survive until 2025.
And anyway, a few months after the election in Quebec and Ontario, and on the eve of the one to come this spring in Alberta, the popular appetite for a new election campaign is very weak.
Mr. Trudeau has another asset. Mr. Singh’s strategy is to exaggerate the difference between himself and the Liberals. But at the same time, he takes credit for policies like dental insurance. These two positions contradict each other – the Liberal government cannot be both disappointing and inspired by him at the same time…
Finally, Mr. Trudeau’s other consolation is the absence of any form of Poilievremania.
The new Conservative leader is a formidable debater, but he is also polarizing. His vote cap is lower than that of Mr. Trudeau. Its supporters are convinced, but its possibilities of gain with the undecided are more limited. More respondents would consider voting for the Liberals (45%) than the Conservatives (42%), and Mr. Trudeau is considered a better prime minister than Mr. Poilievre would be – the gap is four points. percentage.
In short, nothing is played. This is also confirmed by the most recent seat projections from the Canada338 website. The Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied.
The only major trend, if nothing changes: the election of a minority government, once again. It is the reign of the dissatisfied.
As for the Bloc Québécois, it is well in the saddle. The variations are too small to justify interpretations. Let’s just say that Mr. Poilievre has given up his predecessor’s flirtation with Quebec, which will not harm the Bloc.
It is this needle stubbornly stuck in the middle that the parties will try to move this winter.
For Justin Trudeau, the return to the House will have to be done by resolving in particular the problem that he himself created by adding to the list of prohibited weapons models sometimes used for hunting. Other sensitive issues: Bills C-11 and C-12 on the funding of Canadian and Francophone media and culture. Bill Morneau’s new book won’t help either. To reshuffle the cards, Mr. Trudeau could be tempted to make a ministerial adjustment at the start of winter. One thing is certain, he cannot let himself be carried away by his momentum, because it is not pushing him in the right direction.