The Special Committee of the House of Representatives on the events of January 6, 2021 on Capitol Hill is right: that day, Donald Trump attempted a coup in an effort to stay in power. But like so much with Mr. Trump, he was ill-organized and doomed.
The committee is now recommending that the Justice Department initiate criminal charges against Mr. Trump. But this recommendation is not accompanied by any legal obligation. It is not up to elected officials to decide whether criminal charges should be laid.
The committee is certainly correct about what happened on January 6, 2021 and Mr. Trump’s role: “He lit the fuse, poured gasoline on the fire, sat in the dining room of the White House to watch the fire burn and even today he continues to fan the flames. »
But the question now is whether it is appropriate for the Biden administration — in effect, special prosecutor Jack Smith — to proceed with criminal charges against the former president. It would be a mistake.
The first reason is political. The bottom line, as Republican Rep. Liz Cheney said, is that “Donald Trump is unworthy” to hold any new political office and we need to make sure that doesn’t happen.
But Mr. Trump is doing the job all by himself. The results of November’s midterm elections were very ordinary for Republicans and, even more so, for the candidates supported by the former president.
Even when Mr. Trump has invested himself personally in the election, it is often Republican supporters who vote against him. For example, in Georgia, where Governor Brian Kemp’s administration was easily re-elected, even though Mr. Trump intervened personally against this governor who refused to tamper with the election results.
Of course, to say that its influence is declining does not mean that it has disappeared. There are still supporters of Mr. Trump. But when he only talks about the “theft” of the 2020 election, he is only harming his party.
But the fact remains that, in this context, an impeachment by the Biden administration would be immediately used by Mr. Trump as proof that this is a political trial, revenge or a settlement of accounts. The country is already divided enough, there are already enough conspiracy theories circulating, there is no obligation to add more and continue to discredit the institutions even more.
Especially since nothing obliges the special prosecutor to lay charges. The prosecution’s leeway in this regard is well established. All sorts of considerations – not just the evidence itself – must be weighed before bringing charges.
For example, it is likely that the trial would be televised. Wouldn’t a trial where Donald Trump be the accused become a show in which the former host of The Apprentice could show all his gifts to put on a good TV show? And think of the poor judge, who would try to maintain order and the smooth running of proceedings in such a context!
The other question that must always be asked when going to court – and even more so before a judicial system as politicized as in the United States – is: could we lose?
A judge is highly unlikely to reject the exhaustive evidence that exists against former President Trump. Considering what we already know, a pure and simple acquittal would be very surprising. But that the case stumbles for procedural reasons, because of a leak or some other fortuitous cause, is a very real possibility. Which would be immediately used by Mr. Trump as proof of innocence and an opportunity to present himself again as a victim.
Finally, there is a very real possibility that Mr. Trump could find a way to profit financially from the situation. By presenting himself as a victim persecuted by his adversaries, he will have a new means of appealing to his supporters. It would not be the first time.
Shortly after the 2020 election, Mr Trump created an “Election Defense Fund” which was to help pay for legal challenges and recounts.
Within weeks, he secured over $250 million which was quickly transferred to the Save America Political Action Committee. Funds that were mainly used to settle unpaid election expenses and organize the demonstration of January 6, 2021 which preceded the attack on the Capitol.
More recently, he opened a fundraiser to have the searches of his Florida residence canceled for having kept official documents without having the right to do so.
This is another argument that militates against accusations: should the Trump circus be given another opportunity to solicit donations or put on a show?