Far from running out of steam, popular opposition to the mullahs’ regime in Iran is now seeking to enter a new phase with Monday’s call for a massive three-day general strike across the country. A surprising change in tone in the current crisis, which is reminiscent of the beginnings in 1978 of the Iranian revolution — the one that brought down the monarchical regime the following year, in 1979 —, even if its scope remains however uncertain: the economy is highly concentrated in the hands of the guardians of the Iranian theocracy, and the political opposition lacks the structure and organization to accompany the continuation of its movement.
“There are more and more parallels with 1978, and the call for a general strike is another,” said Pierre Pahlavi, professor of political science at the Canadian Forces College and specialist in the Iranian question, in an interview. . It was a call like this, launched by Ayatollah Khomeini from Paris, where he was in exile, in October of that year and relayed by the international media, which was a decisive element of the Islamic revolution. A revolution that led to the fall of the shah’s regime and the establishment of the mullahs’ regime, in place for 43 years now in Iran.
Without it being possible to establish the precise point of origin of this new call to strike, the movement was carried on Monday on social networks, the day after the announcement by the Iranian theocratic regime of the abolition of his morality police. It is this police force which is at the origin of the death of the young Iranian Kurd Mahsa Amini, which occurred on September 16, for a lock of hair protruding from her veil. Her death inflamed the crowds and brought Iranian women’s anger to the public square, which has been going on for almost three months. To everyone’s surprise.
The abolition of this police force was greeted with skepticism by the Iranians, because of the contradictions expressed within the government on its real disappearance and on the possible transfer of its mandate to other repressive authorities.
The stakes of this strike are enormous for the opposition.
In Tehran, the capital, the shops of the grand bazaar were open, but its aisles almost deserted, according to images broadcast online. “We are open, but we are closed, because there are no customers,” said a trader selling beauty products, met by Agence France-Presse.
Other businesses have lowered their curtains in Sanandaj, in the province of Kurdistan, as well as in Isfahan, the third largest city in Iran.
“However, we must remain cautious in the face of this call and wait to see if it will be followed, how it will be by Wednesday and by which sector of the economy,” said Pierre Pahlavi.
The end of the strike on Wednesday is to coincide with the annual Student Day. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is also due to visit two universities in Tehran that day, although the students have become active voices in the ongoing protest.
“The stakes of this strike are enormous for the opposition,” continues Mr. Pahlavi. The economic system, which the movement seeks to paralyze, is in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards. They are the ones in charge and, unlike in the days of monarchy, they are professional revolutionaries. They know how a revolution works and are very well infiltrated in the whole of the population to avoid paying the price. »
The call for a strike also thwarts the analyzes of experts, many of whom did not expect to see the movement grow so large and stay alive for so long in the foreseeable repressive climate imposed by the mullahs. A total of 448 people lost their lives during these demonstrations, according to the NGO Iran Human Rights, based in Oslo, without weakening the movement.
“It’s another twist, says Pierre Pahlavi, which could also testify to the urgency, despair or impatience of the demonstrators to bring down the system. The economic paralysis card is perhaps their last”, but also the trickiest.
This is because, contrary to 1978, the Iranian opposition has no leader, no standard-bearer, no political party behind it that could federate the protest, lead it towards the overthrow of the regime in place and towards a seizure of power necessary to place the country on the path of renewal and freedom demanded by the street.
The strike could also accentuate repression by the regime, even if Tehran would risk, by advocating this course, weakening its hold on society and accelerating its fall. “More repression is a possibility,” says Pahlavi. But this could mark a point of no return for the mullahs, who will have to take this perspective into consideration. An iron fist can help keep things in order, but when the blood of the people is spilled, it can also herald the start of a real revolution. »