Make way for COP28… in the United Arab Emirates.
Mixed results, timid progress, saving face if not saving the world… The 27e UN Climate Conference, where the oil lobby was rather present, is for many another lost year, another missed opportunity. At most, the poorer and more vulnerable countries were entitled to the creation of a fund aimed at mitigating the cost of loss and damage caused by global warming. But whose results and the presence of China among the contributors will remain to be measured. And still no formal, official commitment to get out of fossil fuels.
In fact, some 35 years have passed since the creation of the IPCC and 27 years since COP1 in Berlin in 1995, and we are still calculating record greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For CO2 generated by the combustion of coal, oil and gas alone, the International Energy Agency said in October that it forecast that global emissions will increase by 1% this year after a sharp deterioration in the carbon intensity of the world energy production in 2021 under the effect of the post-pandemic recovery, we could read in a text from Agence France-Presse.
From the outset, before the start of COP27, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) drew up a series of observations showing the shortcomings in terms of political leadership in the fight against global warming. Thus, to date, 136 countries, accounting for 83% of global emissions, have announced their commitment to achieving carbon neutrality. Only 29 countries came to Egypt with updated response plans, retains John Stackhousesenior vice-president at RBC.
However, we are talking here about non-binding and rather timorous commitments, “which do not correspond to the level of ambition required to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050”, writes the OECD. “Governments need to fundamentally transform energy and production systems, and move away from unsustainable consumption and production. However, they have not adopted all the policy instruments at their disposal, nor the level of rigor necessary to achieve significant change. »
Results: while GHG emissions should decrease by around 45% (compared to 2010 levels) by 2030, it is rather expected that these gross emissions will take the opposite path and grow by more than 13% over this period. horizon.
Externalization of carbon intensity
The OECD adds that member countries’ net emissions peaked in 2007 and gradually declined over the following 12 years. But this reversal of the trend hides an increased recourse by most OECD countries to outsourcing the production of carbon-intensive goods to other countries with less strict environmental standards, or almost none at all.
“Such outsourcing is a form of carbon leakage. She highlights some of the challenges of measuring emissions and calls for considering them from the perspective of final demand as well as the implementation of border adjustments, which operate like taxes on goods imported from countries where carbon taxes are low or zero, the international organization points out.
Reaching the net zero emissions target by 2050 implies that the global energy mix be completely remodeled to replace fossil fuels with so-called clean energy sources that would make a large place for solar, bioenergy, wind, hydropower and geothermal energy. According to a 2019 reading, oil accounts for 35% of this energy mix, natural gas 29%, coal and shale oil 14%, for a total of 78%. Renewable energies (11%) and nuclear (10%) follow. “As things stand, the composition of the global energy mix is only expected to shift gradually in favor of clean sources, blocking the way to a 1.5°C target,” laments the OECD.
Especially since the production and supply of fossil fuels continue to be subsidized. “To date, overall government support for fossil fuels in 51 countries around the world has reached US$697.2 billion in 2021, up from US$362.4 billion in 2020.” This government support for fossil fuels will only increase this year, especially consumer subsidies, due to soaring fuel prices.
Carbon tax too low
In addition, it is true that more countries are applying carbon pricing in the form of a tax or emissions trading. The OECD observes that more than 40% of GHG emissions are priced in 2021 compared to 32% in 2018. And that average explicit carbon prices have more than doubled in the meantime. But to reach only 4 euros per tonne of CO2 equivalent. However, it is estimated that an average price of 120 euros would be required by 2030. We are far from the mark. “Not to mention that the measures taken in response to recent energy price increases have led to zero or negative carbon prices for almost 60% of GHG emissions. »
After Egypt this year, it will be Dubai next year, another appropriate place to announce a commitment to end the use of hydrocarbons.