This text is taken from the Courrier de la Planète of November 15, 2022. To subscribe, click here.
A month after his election as Prime Minister of Canada in 2015, Justin Trudeau had the opportunity to deliver a speech at the opening of the 21st UN climate conference (COP21), which would lead to the signing of the Accord from Paris. “Canada is back,” he dropped at the end of a speech hailed by many observers, after years of power from Stephen Harper’s Conservative government.
Since then, the federal government has multiplied promises with a climate flavor. But seven years after the return of a Liberal government to Ottawa, Canada is still lagging far behind in the fight against the climate crisis. This is at least the finding that emerges from an international analysis published Monday as part of the UN climate conference (COP27).
Canada thus ranks 58th in a ranking of 60 states, ie 59 countries and the European Union. This Climate Change Performance Indexpublished every year since 2005, assesses the value of the climate commitments and policies of these States, which alone account for 92% of global GHG emissions.
Canada’s overall performance is thus at a “very low” level, according to what emerges from the portrait drawn up by the organizations Germanwatch, New Climate Institute and the Climate Action Network.
GHG per capita
In terms of GHGs per capita, for example, Canadians emit 17.9 tonnes annually, which is one of the highest levels in the world. However, to respect the most ambitious objective of the Paris Agreement, i.e. to limit average global warming to +1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era, emissions per citizen should not exceed two tonnes, at most.
The analysis, produced with the collaboration of 450 experts in climate and energy issues, nevertheless welcomes the “Emissions Reduction Plan for 2030”, presented last March. This calls for a 40% reduction in Canada’s GHG emissions by the end of the decade compared to their 2005 level.
This plan is based in particular on the desire to electrify the transport sector, eliminate public subsidies for fossil fuels and tackle methane emissions.
The Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Steven Guilbeault, also reiterated Monday at COP27 his desire to impose a cap on emissions from the oil and gas industry, without however limiting production.
In response to questions from To have tothe Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said it was unable to assess the level of production expected for 2030.
“Incompatible”
In light of the available details of the federal climate plan and the GHG reduction target, the Climate Change Performance Index concludes that this is “incompatible” with the objective of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
The report highlights in particular that Canada is still not on the path to reducing oil and gas exploitation, even though several scientific reports have highlighted the need to reduce production to limit the increase in global temperatures. The International Energy Agency, for example, recommends prohibiting all new exploration and exploitation projects.
In this context, the experts conclude, “the production of fossil fuels must decline significantly” in Canada. What’s more, the government should revise its GHG reduction target and “reinforce” its climate plan, so as to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.
According to the target currently in force for 2030, the country should then emit 443 million tonnes (Mt) of GHGs. If we applied here the target to be achieved to limit warming to 1.5°C, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emissions should reach 416 Mt in 2030. The difference, i.e. 27 Mt, is equivalent to the annual emissions of 11 million cars.
“Canada’s poor performance is unfortunately not a surprise, considering that it is the only G7 country that has not flattened the curve of its greenhouse gas emissions,” the policy director said. of the Climate Action Network Canada, Caroline Brouillette. National emissions increased from 741 Mt in 2005 to 738 Mt in 2019, before dropping to 672 Mt in 2020, due to the pandemic. Data for 2021 is not yet public.
Ms. Brouillette therefore invites the Trudeau government to correct the situation. “Several policies that have the potential to regulate the essential sectors of oil and gas, transport and electricity are in development. The big question: will the government give in to pressure from industry to water down these policies, or will it make sure to define and implement them in a rigorous and ambitious way?”