The Canadian economy is already bearing the brunt of climate change, warns another study, this time by the Parliamentary Budget Officer in Ottawa. But if the trend continues, this bill will be at least eight times higher by the end of the century.
Last year, the average temperature in Canada rose almost 1 degree Celsius (0.9°C) above normals from 1961 to 1990 while precipitation was 2.5% higher, the PBO reported on Tuesday. in an analysis of about forty pages. The impact of these changes on agricultural production, economic productivity, human health, infrastructure, energy use and climate-dependent activities resulted in a 0.8% decrease in gross domestic product (GDP), i.e. the loss of the equivalent of just under $20 billion.
Even if all governments around the world were to fulfill their greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction pledges they have made so far, the average temperature in Canada would continue to rise by 0.7°C. by 2050 and nearly double by the end of the century. Rather than a decrease of 0.8% in GDP, the Canadian economy would then show a decline of 2.4% in 2050 and 5.8% in 2100.
The economic consequences promise to be even worse if we do not trust countries’ promises and only take into account their GHG reduction measures that have actually been implemented or are in the process of being implemented. In this case, the average temperature in Canada would rise another 2.3°C by the end of the century and the economic losses would be at least eight times higher (6.6%) than they already are.
These estimates remain incomplete, warns the PBO, because they do not fully account for several aggravating factors. The transition costs linked to the transition to a lower-carbon economy have not been estimated there, for example, nor the more severe impact that climate change could have on the world economy, the damage inflicted by the increase in extreme weather events or global warming which will be much more pronounced in the Canadian Arctic.
And then, the upheaval of the climate will not only have economic impacts, of course, continues the PBO. In particular, it will also have “many effects on health, well-being, nature and ecosystems”.
The PBO analysis comes just as the UN climate conference (COP27) begins in Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt. It adds to a long list of studies of the economic impacts of climate change, including in Canada. Earlier this fall, a study by the Climate Institute of Canada estimated that half of the benefits of economic growth will soon go to repairing the damage caused by climate change. The situation will deteriorate rapidly thereafter, it was said, unless we succeed in slowing down global warming, but also that we make the necessary efforts to adapt to it.