Two men, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who are each playing their political future, and an America which is about to test the solidity of its democracy again: the race for the crucial midterm legislative elections was in its last line on Monday right.
The current president and his predecessor were to face each other through interposed rallies, at the end of a campaign that starkly exposed the gaping divisions of the world’s leading power, whether social, racial, economic or, of course, political.
While Republican candidates threaten not to recognize a possible defeat during the multitude of polls scheduled for Tuesday and grouped under the generic name of “midterms”, while Elon Musk’s takeover of the social network Twitter feeds concerns about a wave of misinformation, now Russia is blowing on the embers.
“We interfered, we do and we will continue to do so. Carefully, precisely, surgically, in our own way,” Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin said Monday.
Already accused of interfering in the election that brought Donald Trump to power in 2016, this Kremlin close friend is issuing this threat even as the former Republican president continues to fuel the suspense over a new candidacy in 2024.
Red wave?
The billionaire will hold a rally on Monday in Ohio, an industrial state in the Midwest emblematic of the concerns of this America that he has been able to seduce: the modest middle class, mostly white, living in the countryside or in peri-urban areas, tempted by a general decline in the face of globalisation.
Sunday, under the cries “Four more years! Four more years! of his supporters, he urged them to “stay tuned” for this meeting on Monday.
Monday during which Elon Musk also called for a Republican vote, to counterbalance the Democratic presidency, he said.
Americans are called to the polls on Tuesday to renew the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. A whole host of major local elected positions are also at stake.
After a fierce campaign centered on inflation, Republicans are showing growing confidence in their chances of overthrowing Congress entirely. That is to say not only to take the House of Representatives, which is the classic scenario in the “midterms”, but also to wrest Joe Biden’s slim control of the Senate.
The party now openly dreams of a “red wave” – the color of the Conservatives.
Kevin McCarthy, a possible future Republican boss of the House of Representatives, is already considering wide-ranging investigations into Joe Biden’s record, from withdrawing from Afghanistan to handling the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We will never use impeachment for political purposes,” McCarthy also told CNN, adding that “it doesn’t mean that if something comes up it won’t be used some other time.” .
Referendum on Biden or “choice”?
Organized two years after the presidential election, these elections become a de facto referendum on the occupant of the White House, which very rarely escapes the sanction vote.
Joe Biden should again repeat on Monday, for his last rally in the state of Maryland, on the outskirts of Washington, that this election is not a referendum on his action but “a choice”, in particular on the right to abortion and on the future of democracy.
Faced with the effectiveness of the Republicans’ campaign on the cost of living, the Democrats have however tried to insist more in recent days on the major projects launched by Joe Biden to lower the price of drugs, reduce student debt, revive the industrial employment, etc.
But Americans won’t feel the effects for years, while soaring prices are an immediate and concrete reality.
Donald Trump, for his part, threw himself headlong into the campaign, giving these “midterms” the appearance of a second round of the 2020 match. Or even a warm-up round before 2024?
Joe Biden says so far he intends to run again, but the prospect does not delight all Democrats, because of his age – soon to be 80 – and his unpopularity.
decisive states
The ballot, and in particular control of the immensely powerful Senate, is being played out in a handful of key states – the same as in the 2020 presidential election.
All the spotlights are on Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina. All these states are the scene of intense struggles, involving hundreds of millions of dollars, with on the Republican side candidates dubbed by Donald Trump, who swear absolute loyalty to the former tenant of the White House.
In total, nearly 17 billion dollars will have been spent for this election according to the Opensecrets site, a record.
Also on the rise, early voting: Monday, more than 40 million Americans had already voted early in the midterm elections, surpassing the level of the 2018 legislative elections, according to the US Elections Project.
However, it is impossible to say who benefits from this trend, even if historically, early voting leans towards the Democrats.