COP27 in Egypt | It’s warming up even faster than expected

On the first day of the climate COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported on Sunday that the planet has now warmed by 1.15°C since pre-industrial times. An average that comes dangerously close to the threshold set at 1.5°C by scientists. Close-up on eight key figures of the climate crisis.

Eric-Pierre Champagne
The Press

1.15 °C

According to the latest data from the World Meteorological Organization released on Sunday, the planet has already warmed by 1.15°C since the pre-industrial era. “As COP27 begins, our planet is sending a signal of distress,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video message broadcast in Sharm el-Sheikh. He also called for “ambitious and credible actions”. But this figure does not say it all: it is a worldwide average. Because in some regions of the world, the warming is even faster. Europe, for example, is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet. A recent UN report indicates that Europe has experienced a warming of 0.5°C in just 30 years (1991-2021). In North America, experts also expect warming to be twice the global average by 2100. Meanwhile, the WMO reported on Sunday that the past eight years, including 2022, will have been the warmest since the pre-industrial era.

29 country

Ahead of COP27, only 29 countries have presented new commitments to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, according to the UN, the current commitments lead us to a warming of 2.8°C by the end of the century, if and only if the promises of the nations are respected. By 2030, GHG emissions are expected to increase by 10.6% compared to 2010 levels. According to the IPCC, they should rather decrease by 45% by the end of the decade compared to 2019 levels in order to meet the Paris Agreement target.

1.5 °C

This is the target set by the Paris Agreement, concluded at the COP21 held in 2015. This objective was not established by chance, it represents a limit beyond which the consequences of climate change will be irreversible in several regions of the world. A warming of more than 1.5°C by the end of the century also means that millions, if not billions, of people will see their lives radically changed due to global warming.

350 ppm

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere must be limited to 350 parts per million (ppm) in order to meet the 1.5° target. vs. However, as of November 5, this indicator was at 416.55 ppm. Note that it is not the presence of CO₂ in the atmosphere which poses a problem, but its concentration is too high. According to scientists, it is necessary to go back several million years in time to find a concentration greater than 400 ppm in the Earth’s atmosphere. This limit was exceeded again in 2013.

33 %

According to UNESCO, a United Nations agency, a third of world heritage glaciers will disappear by 2050. Half could disappear by the end of the century if GHG emissions remain at their current level. World Heritage glaciers are melting at a rate of 58 billion tonnes of ice per year, says UNESCO, which conducted a study of 18,600 glaciers across 50 World Heritage sites. A recent study published in the journal Remote Sensing of Environment also revealed that glaciers have melted an average of seven times faster over the past decade.

10 %

The last two and a half years account for 10% of the rise in sea levels observed over the past 30 years. The rate of sea level rise has doubled since 1993. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), sea levels could rise by 20 centimeters on the west coast and 35 centimeters on the US east coast within 30 year. Several island countries will bear the brunt of the consequences of sea level rise. Many coastal cities will also be affected, including New York and Miami.

75%

According to a study recently published in Nature Climate Change, three quarters of tree species are considered to be at risk by 2050 in the main cities of the world due to climate change. The researchers base their assessment on a warming of 2.8°C by the end of the century. Their study looked at 164 cities in 78 countries. Another study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences also indicates that global warming could affect the ability of trees to absorb CO2. Several studies already suggest that many of the world’s forests are approaching their thermal limit for carbon uptake.