“With this motion of censure, we can clearly see the macronization of the right.” In front of the journalists, this Monday, October 24, Marine Le Pen’s smile says it all. The president of the RN group in the Assembly thinks she has pulled off a masterstroke by announcing the support of her troops for the motion of censure on the budget tabled by Nupes. “This has the merit of demonstrating that the LR group is closer to the majority than to the opposition”thus affirmed in front of the press the finalist of the last presidential election. “It’s a great move by Marine Le Pen, she trapped everyone, we didn’t expect it”recognizes a ministerial adviser.
On his red velvet bench in the hemicycle, the leader of the 62 Republican deputies, Olivier Marleix, tries to be calm in the face of the concerns of the deputies of his camp. How not to appear as the opposition group which will have allowed the government to stay in power? According to his entourage, Olivier Marleix did not panic and quickly imagined the response. Because the right intends to turn the situation to its advantage.
To counter the RN offensive and not appear as the ally of the majority and the life insurance of the government, the parliamentary right quickly put in place a multi-stage argument. It is first of all to castigate an unnatural alliance between the left and the RN. “We finally see that the extremes come together”tackles deputy LR Alexandre Vincendet. “One time, they denounced the UMPS, and there they set up the RNupes”also stings the deputy Pierre Cordier. “I think it’s a mistake and it will destabilize the right-wing electorate of the RN. In any case, it will give us arguments”hopes the former minister Brice Hortefeux.
“Marine Le Pen just clarified that the RN and the Nupes ate from the same bowl.”
Julien Dive, deputy LRat franceinfo
If some voices are calling for a government pact, the majority of LR deputies want to remain in firm opposition and recall that they would have voted against the budget if 49.3 had not been used. But they also want to appear as the only constructive group in the parliamentary opposition. “Marleix said to the deputies of the group: ‘It is precisely the moment to show that we are the only ones to be responsible'”explains his entourage. “On the eve of an economic recession, I am not sure that adding institutional instability is a good omen”supports Julien Dive.
The fact of not having voted the motions of censure tabled by the RN and the Nupes does not mean that LR renounces to file one in the future. “We have to control the weather, but I think today that we are not ready”estimated on franceinfo the boss of LR senators, Bruno Retailleau, before reaffirming that his political formation is part of the opposition and will have to, “during this five-year term, table a motion of censure”.
“We are in a moment, after the failure of the presidential election, which is a moment of weakness. Why would we choose this moment of weakness to do hara-kiri?”
Bruno Retailleau, president of the LR group in the Senateat franceinfo
During his weekly press conference, Olivier Marleix confirmed on Tuesday that he did not rule out filing a motion of censure depending on the scenarios, in particular in the event of the use of 49.3 on the pension reform. “It is certain that if we continue to present budgets with a 45% deficit, yes, there will end up being a motion of censure”, adds LR deputy Philippe Juvin. And in this case, the oppositions would have every chance of coming together to bring down the government. “We are free and when it comes to France, we don’t hesitate. From the moment we were able to vote for the Nupes text, I think we can do it with the LRs”, warns the deputy RN Sébastien Chenu. Alexis Corbière, like Eric Coquerel, also say “yes” to a possible motion of censure tabled by LR.
What should the presidential camp worry about? Officially, no, even if some are under no illusions. “I am not worried but I think that this mandate will not last five years”, slips a heavyweight of the majority. So, pending a possible forced and forced resignation from the government and a possible dissolution, everyone relativizes the scope of Monday evening’s episode, portrayed as a simple confirmation of what we already know. “Honestly, I’m not sure that [le vote des députés RN en faveur de la motion de censure de la Nupes] change anythingassures a Renaissance deputy. LRs have this button [le pouvoir de faire adopter une motion de censure] from the beginning.”
However, the majority is betting on the fact that there is no credible alternative, since a coalition of oppositions would, from their point of view, be ideologically ineffective. Emmanuel Macron’s support comes from the arguments already repeated since the installation of this legislature without an absolute majority. “To say that the LRs hold the key for a motion of censure? Yes and no, shade Charles Rodwell, Renaissance MP for Yvelines. Because if they vote for a motion of censure with the Nupes and the RN, it is the complete disappearance of LR.
“If they end up passing a motion with a group that says ‘police kill’ [une référence à des propos tenus en juin par Jean-Luc Mélenchon], they will have to explain themselves to their constituents. It’s their responsibility.”
Charles Rodwell, Renaissance MPat franceinfo
“The future will tell us what each other’s behavior will be. But we don’t change ours”, it is argued in the entourage of Franck Riester, Minister of Relations with Parliament. By displaying a form of serenity to remind that the majority works in consultation: “We have demonstrated that we are capable of building agreements, the channel is permanently open with the group presidents.” And especially with LR.
Monday’s footage confirms that the right has a strong argument in the upcoming negotiations on the bills. “We have been aware of this from the start. I kept saying within my group that we had a pivotal role and that we had to use it”assures Pierre Cordier. “It gives an essential role that we shouldn’t have to 62 deputies, honestly”smiles a party heavyweight.
According to Philippe Juvin, the arbitrations of the government have already leaned in favor of the right-wing party. “When we have reasonable amendments, we manage to get them through”he assures, before boasting: “We have the impression of being more heard than Horizons [le parti d’Edouard Philippe, qui fait partie de la majorité] !” It should be remembered, however, that of the 117 amendments retained by the executive within the framework of the budget, only three came from the LR group. But the parliamentarians of the former UMP do not care.
“If the government starts to give us 49.3s and to hold on to it, obviously we draw out the motion of censure. We are the masters of the clocks.”
An LR frameat franceinfo
Words that leave the executive marble. “In any case, we are not going to accept blackmail because there is a risk of dissolution, decides a ministerial adviser. It is complicated to make a policy contrary to what one thinks because there is this ax. The latter does not believe in this threat at all. “It’s a bluff. As long as LR has no political line and has not appointed its presidentthey won’t have the courage to table a motion of censure.” The majority will therefore carefully monitor the results of the LR congress, scheduled for early December.