(New York) To add to the many precedents that have marked Donald Trump’s political career since his descent from the Trump Tower escalator on June 16, 2015: his role in the campaign for the 2022 midterm elections .
Posted at 6:00 a.m.
Never has a former American president weighed as much as Donald Trump on the choice of his party’s candidates for the positions of senator, representative and governor, among others. Never has a former president participated in so many rallies to mobilize voters (21 counting those last weekend in Nevada and Arizona).
“What it shows is that Donald Trump has a very personal relationship with his base,” said William Galston, a researcher at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
This relationship is personal both because it’s direct and because it’s all about him, not the Republican Party. That’s what happens when you have a populist who makes a direct connection to their constituents, who bypasses normal political institutions.
William Galston, researcher at the Brookings Institution
The question now is what effect this unprecedented role will have not only on the 2022 ballot, but also on the 2024 presidential election. Like other analysts, William Galston takes for granted that the Republicans will rob the Democrats of their majority in representatives room.
But he shares the opinion of Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republicans in the Senate, that the poor quality of some candidates promoted or chosen by Donald Trump could cost the Grand Old Party control of the upper house of Congress. Among those candidates are Herschel Walker, Georgia, Mehmet Oz, Pennsylvania, Blake Masters, Arizona, and J. D. Vance, Ohio.
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PHOTO DUSTIN CHAMBERS, REUTERS ARCHIVES
Donald Trump and Herschel Walker, Republican Senate candidate in Georgia, September 25
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PHOTO ARVIN TEMKAR, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
With J. D. Vance, Republican candidate for the Senate in Ohio
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PHOTO BRIAN SNYDER, REUTERS
Donald Trump salutes Blake Masters, Republican Senate candidate in Arizona.
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PHOTO ANDREW KELLY, REUTERS ARCHIVES
With the Dr Mehmet Oz, Republican candidate in Pennsylvania, September 3
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A repeat of 2020?
William Galston comments on the situation: “Let me put it this way: Mr. Trump is directly responsible for the defeat of two Senate candidates in Georgia in 2020, a defeat that gave the Democrats their narrow majority for the first two years of the presidency of Joe Biden. »
If the Republicans once again fail to capture a majority in the Senate because of the candidates Mr. Trump has endorsed, I think that would be a blow to his presidential ambitions. Not a fatal blow, but a significant blow.
William Galston, researcher at the Brookings Institution
In the meantime, some Republican candidates are trying to distance themselves from Donald Trump. This is particularly the case of Blake Masters, a venture capitalist in another life. Prior to the Arizona Republican primary, the neophyte candidate’s website read this: “The 2020 election was a mess—if we had a free and fair election, President Trump would be sitting in the Oval office today and America would be so much better off. After the primary, this passage disappeared.
PHOTO BRIAN SNYDER, REUTERS ARCHIVE
Donald Trump throws a ‘Save America’ cap to his supporters at a rally in Arizona.
“Some candidates continue to explicitly claim the support they received from Donald Trump. Others try to move away from it a little by changing their messages on their websites or in their leaflets. It depends on the context,” says Karen Hult, a political scientist at Virginia Tech University.
Donald Trump refuses to modulate his message to avoid harming Republican candidates running in more moderate constituencies or states. In his campaign speeches in recent weeks, he has often returned to the 2020 presidential election or the FBI search at Mar-a-Lago. And, on at least one occasion, he conjured up his favorite conspiracy theories to music resembling the QAnon conspiracy movement anthem.
PHOTO JEFF KOWALSKY, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
A Donald Trump supporter gives the QAnon movement salute at a Donald Trump rally in Michigan on 1er october.
This kind of talk is a double-edged sword, according to Karen Hult. “On the one hand, Republicans are taking advantage of Mr. Trump to mobilize their voters, attract them to their rallies, get media coverage and get their supporters to vote. On the other hand, these rallies demobilize Republican voters who are unsure if they want to vote for a candidate who receives such support from Mr. Trump. And at the same time, they are mobilizing the Democrats. »
Spotlight on Abortion
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PHOTO STEVE HELBER, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
Abigail Spanberger, Democratic Representative from Virginia
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PHOTO JACQUELYN MARTIN, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
Elaine Luria, Democratic Representative from Virginia and member of the Commission of Inquiry into the January 6, 2021 assault
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However, in the key constituencies of a state like Virginia, Democratic candidates leave it to Joe Biden to attack Donald Trump and the “MAGA” movement, which he described as “semi-fascist”. Representatives Elaine Luria and Abigail Spanberger, who feverishly defend seats snatched from Republicans in 2018, provide the best example of this phenomenon, according to Karen Hult.
They don’t attack Mr. Trump as much as one might expect. They mainly attack the decision of the Supreme Court repealing the judgment Roe v. Wade.
Karen Hult, political scientist at Virginia Tech
Donald Trump still occupies a certain place in the campaign of Elaine Luria. The ex-serviceman is a member of the House of Representatives Committee of Inquiry into the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. To say that this investigation and the others targeting Donald Trump will have an effect on the midterm elections is a step that most analysts refuse to take. As for 2024, that’s a different story. “The cumulative effect of these investigations could affect Mr. Trump’s chances of being the Republican Party’s presidential nominee again in 2024,” said Karen Hult. In fact, it could help his Republican rivals. William Galston doubts this last point, while acknowledging the potential effect of investigations targeting Trump on the entire American electorate.
“Slowly, gradually, the investigations are eroding Mr. Trump’s support,” he said. How far it will go, I don’t know. But I can tell you that a majority of the American people think he did commit a crime. That said, I still believe that if Mr. Trump runs for the Republican nomination, he will get it. Because the erosion is not so great within his own party. »