After a long summer break, the parliamentary session resumes Monday, October 3 in the National Assembly with, above the heads of the deputies, the threat of a dissolution.
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The red rag was waved by Emmanuel Macron, who indicated that he would not hesitate to dissolve the Assembly in the event of blocking of the pension reform, if a motion of censure was tabled. In other words if the oppositions agreed on a great alliance, which seems far from won.
Indeed, the deputies on the left and those of the National Rally do not play football together, so will they go so far as to vote for the same motion of censure? “We are not going to let a 49-3 pass without saying anything, assures Mathilde Panot, the leader of the rebellious in the Assembly. We spent five years being Emmanuel Macron’s doormat!” The tone is the same at the National Rally: “We are not dogmatic! When an idea seems to us to make sense, wherever it comes from, we vote for it, thus underlines the RN deputy for Var, Laure Lavalette. It just seems to us to be a way to fight against the brutality of this government.”
The problem is that even if it is to bring down the government, not all of the left is of the same opinion. For example, socialists and environmentalists do not intend to play the alliance of circumstance with the party of Marine Le Pen and in any case, the votes of all the Nupes and the RN would not be enough to see a motion of censure adopted, it would be necessary that The Republicans agree to sign it, which seems unlikely today. The failure of a motion of censure does not really have any consequences, but if we refer to the words of Emmanuel Macron, it would remove, at least temporarily, the specter of a dissolution.
We feel that the context is extremely tense around this return to parliament. After a warm-up on consensual texts around the purchasing power of the French this summer, “The Assembly will once again become a small political theater”, worries a Renaissance deputy. Left-wing elected officials promise “a real parliamentary guerrilla”, with, clearly, very many amendments to delay the debates, suspensions of session which do not end, blows of bursts. With for the camp of Emmanuel Macron, the absolute necessity, in a context of relative majority, to find compromises with certain fringes of the opposition.
Thus, on the program for this return to school, a debate on the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the examination of the first law of the reform of unemployment insurance. Then come the big pieces during the fall: the state budget, that of Social Security, which will revive tensions around the pension reform. Conclusion of an elected member of the National Rally: “It’s going to be rock…”