While the big boss of the World Health Organization (WHO) affirmed on Wednesday that the end of the COVID-19 pandemic is “within reach”, some Canadian experts believe that it would be premature to declare the end of this global health crisis.
The WHO said on Wednesday that the number of global deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the past week had reached its lowest level since the start of the pandemic, which was declared in March 2020. The WHO had to same breath urged governments, at this pivotal moment in the pandemic, to remain vigilant to avoid a reversal.
“Psychologically, many people in the public and in government felt they now wanted to move on,” said Dr. Fahad Razak, who led the group of scientific advisors to the Ontario government on COVID-19. This group was recently disbanded.
“The question now is: have we got there yet? However, many stakeholders in the system believe that it is premature to send this message. »
Variants of the coronavirus usually appear during the fall and winter, which leads to an increase in cases and deaths, said Dr Razak. And there’s no reason why it shouldn’t happen again this year.
On the other hand, if we don’t see a new wave during this usual “peak season”, experts could be more inclined to declare the end of the pandemic next spring, he says.
“I would like to see us go through the fall and winter with some stability in the health care system,” Prof Razak said. “And that means, in particular, controlling the virus […] to give our healthcare system a chance to function fully through the fall and winter. »
A marathon runner at the end of the race
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced on Wednesday that deaths from COVID-19 worldwide had fallen by 22% in the past week, with just over 11,000 deaths reported. There were 3.1 million new cases, a drop of 28%, continuing a downward trend in the disease for weeks in all regions of the world.
“We’re not there yet, but the end is near,” he said, giving the image of a marathon runner approaching the finish line. “It’s the worst time to stop running. It’s more about running harder and making sure we cross the finish line, and reap all the rewards of our hard work. »
Dr. Anna Banerji, an infectious disease specialist and associate professor in the Dalla-Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, also recommends vigilance. “Many people, myself included, think there is going to be another wave in Canada, with kids going back to school without masks — and kids can go back to school with COVID,” said she pointed out.
Dr. Banerji believes WHO should not rush things. “If (the pandemic) isn’t quite over, announcing it a bit prematurely would mean people don’t get their vaccines, their booster shots,” she said.
And Colin Furness, who also teaches at the Dalla-Lana school, recalls that with the lack of evidence on COVID-19 in Canada, it is difficult to demonstrate that things are really improving. “When we stopped testing for COVID, we made it much more difficult to diagnose people with COVID-19. […] and the actual death toll from COVID,” he said.
Professor Furness also believes that this lack of data should prompt the WHO to temper its enthusiasm and watch its language. “I think it’s dangerous for the WHO to make big global statements, when this global phenomenon is just not happening the same way at the same time everywhere,” he said.
Neil Seeman, health communicator and lecturer at the Institute for Health Policy, Management and Evaluation at the University of Toronto, reminds us that it is equally important to pay attention to the second part of the WHO statement on Wednesday: that we must not let our guard down now.
The WHO, he said, actually wanted to galvanize the troops, not imply that the page was now turned on this pandemic.