A still barely noticeable drop

After 13 months of consecutive increases, finally a respite for consumers. The inflation rate dipped slightly in July, but unfortunately this is still barely visible in the portfolio.

“I find that it does not appear yet. Like blueberries, strawberries, meat…it’s still very expensive. That’s why I come here, to pay less,” explains Paul Lupien, whom Le Journal met at the Jean-Talon Market yesterday afternoon.

Same story for Julie Trottier, a fruit and vegetable producer from Saint-Eustache, who believes that the context remains tight for customers.

“There aren’t really any bargains! There are pears, kiwis and grapes which are perhaps a little cheaper. But frankly, I’ve never seen that, corn at 9 dollars a dozen, ”she says, discouraged.

Even if the signs of a downturn are not yet perceptible, the slowdown is well and truly underway. After peaking at 8% in June, the inflation rate fell to 7.3% in Quebec in July. In Canada, it went from 8.1% to 7.6%.

This drop is mainly due to the price of gasoline, which fell 8.5% over one month in Quebec with fears of an economic slowdown and recession.

Food prices are rising again

For food, the increase was 0.2% compared to June, 8.9% year on year. But for some categories, the price declined slightly in July.

This is particularly the case for meat, the price of which fell by 1.1% compared to June. For vegetables, the decrease was 1% and for fruit, 2.9% over one month, a trend already visible in June.

“It is certain that our vegetables have always had the same price in recent months. Sometimes it goes down 50 cents. Right now it’s stable. Now it’s tomato season, we’re lowering prices a bit, but not too much either, because we have associated costs,” explains Josée Sansoucy, who works for producers André and Dominic Palardy in Saint-Damase.

Good harvest

Even though the spring was rainy in Quebec, especially in June, the summer harvest is described as good by producers and demand is in balance with supply.

“It’s very very good. We have nothing to complain about on that side. We have plenty of vegetables. We are producing peppers and peppers and not all of our varieties have come out yet,” says Ms.me Sansoucy.


Julie Trottier, Fruit and vegetable producer

Photo Olivier Bourque

Julie Trottier, Fruit and vegetable producer

“It’s a good harvest this year, except for the strawberries, because there was rain. But the producers have kept a stable price for the merchants, so it’s not too visible for consumers, ”added Annabelle Orenalla Flores of the Mont-Rouge vegetable garden.

Other product categories also contributed to the drop in prices, in particular transport (largest decrease since April 2020) and the cost of clothing and footwear.

Another rate hike

Despite these encouraging signs, inflation is still far from the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, which will have to kick in again in the fall.

“Although this suggests that the worst is behind us, inflation remains too high, which should prompt the Bank of Canada to raise its key rate by 75 basis points in September,” said an economic note from the National Bank.

Desjardins believes that the key rate will be increased by 50 basis points.

–With the collaboration of Sylvain Larocque

PRICES THAT ARE RISING, OTHERS THAT ARE FALLING

Price evolution from June to July

  • Plane tickets +26%
  • travel services +7%
  • Traveler accommodation +3.7%
  • Dairy products and eggs -0.8%
  • Meat -1.1%
  • Fresh fruits -2.9%
  • Essence -8.5%

Source: Statistics Canada

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