Three years ago, in 2019, candidate Biden wanted to make Saudi Arabia a state “pariah”, that was his expression: to isolate him as much as possible on the international scene. Joe Biden did not want to let the assassination of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi pass without reprisal in 2018. An assassination authorized, according to American intelligence, by the Saudi crown prince himself. Once elected, Joe Biden promised to “recalibrate” relations with Riyadh. No question of following in the footsteps of Donald Trump, who rushed to the Gulf to stage his great embraces with Mohamed Bin Salman.
But that was before the war in Ukraine. Since then, crude prices have exploded, prices at the pump too. Americans are exasperated. The Head of State is accumulating criticism, the mid-term elections are looking bad, he has to give pledges. Change of program ! In the closet, good intentions and moral considerations. Joe Biden comes in person to ask the Saudis to open the floodgates. As the world’s largest oil producer, the kingdom is indeed the only one able to influence global supply and quickly curb soaring prices.
Publisher and CEO of@washingtonposttakes a stand against Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia. According to him, a handshake with Crown Prince MBS “sends a dangerous message about the value the United States places on freedom of the press” https://t.co/juUEFjTdBN
— Vincent Gosselin (@VGosselinRC) July 12, 2022
Except that he doesn’t really want to pass for a cynic who would turn around for a few barrels. Faced with controversy, Joe Biden wrote a long column on Saturday in the Washington Post. A nice balancing act in which he is pleased to have “reversed the blank check policy” practiced by Donald Trump… while explaining that Saudi Arabia is “a strategic partner“essential for the United States”for 80 yearss”.
Above all, he manages the feat of talking about his upcoming trip to the Gulf without ever quoting Mohamed Ben Salmane once. His desire to keep distance, to keep up appearances borders on the ridiculous. The White House, for example, does not say that the American president will “to encounter” MBS, but that the two men will be present at the same meeting in Jeddah. She does not say either that they will exchange face to face.
Except that opposite, MBS, he has no desire to remain discreet. He wants it, his symbolic photo, the handshake with Joe Biden under the flashes of the photographers who will show his rehabilitation to the eyes of the whole world. Because before Joe Biden, there was Emmanuel Macron, at the beginning of December, first major leader of a Western country to visit Riyadh. Even Turkish President Erdogan received MBS at the end of June in Ankara for his first official visit to Turkey, opening a “new era” in Turkish-Saudi relations. The image issue is huge. So much so that the terms of the Biden-MBS meeting this week have still not been made public.
Basically, is Saudi Arabia ready to meet its demand and increase its oil production? Nothing proves it. The rise in prices has given a real boost to its economy: the kingdom has just recorded its highest growth rate for ten years (9.6%) thanks to oil. It will not encourage him to open the floodgates to lower prices. Rather, on the contrary, to pursue this policy which allows it, in an unexpected way, to finance the (expensive) diversification already undertaken of its economic model.
“MBS knows that oil can be used as a weapon to pressure the Biden administration to rehabilitate him and reverse its policy of selective engagement” l Madawi al-Rasheed https://t.co/UmMoVJFq9U
— Middle East Eye Fr (@MiddleEastEyeFr) June 14, 2022
The war in Ukraine has also accelerated what has been taking shape for some years already: Saudi Arabia (and with it the other Gulf petro-monarchies) no longer wants to be considered Washington’s puppet. It is today with the Russians and the Chinese that Riyadh displays its economic and strategic convergences. There is no longer any question of systematically aligning oneself with American or Western positions – we have seen this in particular when the Emirates abstained from voting on the resolution condemning the Russian invasion at the UN Security Council, of which they are a non-permanent member.
Despite this, in September there is a meeting of OPEC, the oil-exporting countries, which could agree, under world pressure, to open the tap a little more. Joe Biden does not have everything to lose by doing realpolitik.