“The infrastructures are already totally saturated. We have no short-term solution”, explains Friday June 17 on franceinfo Michel Portier, director of Agritel, an analysis and consulting firm specializing in agricultural and agro-industrial markets after the declarations of Emmanuel Macron on Thursday, traveling to kyiv, on Ukrainian wheat. Currently, millions of tons of Ukrainian wheat are waiting in the ports and in the silos, notably in Odessa, blocked by the Russian army. Emmanuel Macron acknowledged that there were no immediate solutions. “We have wheat in the world, enough to meet demand, the problem is logistics”confirms Michel Portier.
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franceinfo: Can we use the Romanian route to export Ukrainian wheat? Either by rail or by the Danube river? Is there enough infrastructure today?
Michael Porter: The infrastructures are already completely saturated, so we will not be able to improve what already exists. Today, we use all possible and imaginable means to go by rail or by small boat on the Danube or by truck to get out these 20 million tons of cereals still blocked in Ukraine, but we are already at saturation. Not to mention that the port of Constanta in Romania, which allows passage through the Black Sea, is already saturated. It is therefore impossible in the short term. The maximum that we can do today is to export through these different systems 1.5 million tonnes per month – and we are already almost at full capacity – whereas we need to export 6 to 7 million tons per month.
“The only solution is to reopen the port of Odessa in particular.”
Michel Portier, specialist in agricultural and agro-industrial marketsat franceinfo
To give an example, a ship loaded in Odessa – let’s say a 60,000 ton – we need 50 trains to export the equivalent.
Behind this blockage, is there a risk of famine for African countries?
Unfortunately yes, this risk is there, it exists and we have no short-term solution. It will take months or even a year or two. Trains, boats, trucks, we are already at saturation point in terms of logistics with, in addition, rail standard issues which force us to unload trains at the border between Ukraine and Romania since we do not have the same track width. We therefore already need 15 days to unload a train.
India imposes an embargo on its own wheat because of the drought, are other countries today able to compensate for the lack of Ukrainian wheat?
We shouldn’t just talk about wheat, I’m also worried about corn. We must therefore rather speak of cereals. Ukraine is the leading maize exporting country for Europe (otherwise it is the United States). Russia – itself – is the leading wheat-exporting country and Moscow will not be able to export all its wheat either, insofar as, today, we are unable to ensure the safety of large ships, including towards Russia. The problem is not so much the global balance sheet. We have wheat in the world, enough to meet demand, the problem is logistics. We lack roughly the equivalent of 20 to 30 million tonnes of cereals available on the international scene.