(New York) The execution was very far from perfect, but the intention was clear: in withdrawing the last American soldiers from Afghanistan, Joe Biden wanted to have a free hand to be able to concentrate on his own priorities in matters of foreign policy, at the forefront of which was China.
Posted at 6:00 a.m.
Less than a year later, Afghanistan has disappeared from American radar, but the trajectory of American foreign policy has suddenly and unexpectedly changed. “The conflict in Ukraine has shattered this trajectory and forced the Biden administration to reinvest itself in the European file, a little in spite of itself”, affirms Pierre Morcos, associate researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, think tank located in Washington.
“That said, Washington played the leadership card perfectly in this conflict,” adds the French-born specialist, referring to Washington’s efforts, prior to the Russian aggression, to build a coalition including European countries, but also Japan and Australia, among others.
There was unprecedented coordination in terms of the adoption of sanctions, the delivery of arms to Ukraine, but also in the energy field. We know that the United States has been a driving force in this regard.
Pierre Morcos, associate researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
With the “help” of Russia
Ivana Stradner, a research associate at the American Enterprise Institute, another Washington think tank, goes even further: “We have to admit that, thanks to the situation in Ukraine, the United States, within the limits of its own abilities and interests in Ukraine, are reshaping the world order,” she said.
“We must also admit that this would not have happened without the help of Russia, which expected the destruction of unity within the European Union and NATO. »
From there to compare the management of the allies by Joe Biden in the face of the invasion of Ukraine to that of George Bush senior in the face of the fall of the Soviet Union and the reunification of Germany, there is only a step taken last week by the columnist of the New York Times Thomas Friedman. The latter notably recalled that no American soldier had lost his life during the transformation of Europe under Bush Senior.
Such a comparison, which was intended to be favorable to Joe Biden, makes Garret Martin, a professor at the American University in Washington, where he co-directs the Transatlantic Policy Center, tickle.
A united political class
“I’m a historian by training and historical analogies always make me a little uncomfortable,” he says. Where I think the analogy is interesting is that Biden, like Bush senior when he was in office, is a very experienced man in foreign policy, a very pragmatic man who relies heavily on people , as Bush did. »
But it’s hard to say we don’t have bloodshed, given the violence and horrific scenes we see in Ukraine. And worries about overflows haven’t completely gone away, either.
Garret Martin, professor at the American University of Washington
One thing is certain, the American political class remains largely in solidarity with Joe Biden’s objectives vis-à-vis Ukraine and Russia. Despite some dissenting voices, elected Republicans from both houses of Congress recently approved with lightning speed a $40 billion military and economic aid plan for Kyiv, which will notably allow the United States to continue its deliveries heavy weapons to Ukraine, including H777 Howitzer guns and HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), multiple rocket launchers mounted on light armor, with a range of about 80 km.
The danger of getting bogged down
But how long can such a unity last? The question also concerns the American political class.
“Where it gets tricky going forward is if the war becomes a stalemate for years, and it starts to look like another Afghanistan where you keep throwing money around and never being able to. solve,” says Garret Martin. In the nearer future, differences may also emerge among the allies over how to end the conflict.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a new objective at the end of April, that of “weakening” Russia for the next few years, so that it cannot repeat elsewhere what it is doing in Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz seem more eager to reach a ceasefire.
The American electorate will also have a say in the midterm elections.
“People are already tired of inflation, rising gas prices, the economy,” says Ivana Stradner. It will therefore certainly be a huge challenge for the Biden administration, which will have to find a balance between domestic and international politics. »