In her campaign office, on the fourth floor of a building offering a concrete panorama of her riding, New Democrat Chandra Pasma wishes that this time would be the right one. After rising to 175 votes to be elected MP for Ottawa West — Nepean in 2018, the candidate hopes that more voters on the left will line up behind her this year.
Four years ago, a majority of voters in the riding did not want the Conservatives: 61% of them voted for the NDP and the Liberals. But it was Tory rookie Jeremy Roberts who emerged victorious with a 0.34% lead over Chandra Pasma, the narrowest margin of victory for a Tory in the last election.
Thousands of progressive Ontarians will choose by June who, the Liberal Party or the New Democratic Party, has the best chance of defeating the Progressive Conservatives in their riding. Both parties, recognizing the risk of splitting the vote, as was the case in Ottawa West — Nepean in 2018, are seeking to rally progressive voters or risk paving the way for Conservative victories.
The Progressive Conservatives themselves are aware of this. According to a source close to Jeremy Roberts’ 2018 campaign, the Conservative team felt they needed the NDP and Liberal Party candidates to run a good campaign and split the left vote to hope to win, which was the case.
In 2018, the Conservatives won eight constituencies by a margin of less than 2.5%. The combined Liberal and NDP vote averaged 15 percentage points higher than the Conservatives in those races. The NDP considers itself in the best position to gain power in these ridings, considering its second place finish in ten races won by the Conservatives by a margin of less than 5%.
Behind her mask, Chandra Pasma says her performance in 2018 could give her the edge over the Liberals, who represented the constituency from 2003 to 2018. “People know we are the strategic choice because of what happened. passed in 2018,” she says. At the doors she knocked on, people remember her performance. According to a recent poll by the firm Mainstreet Research carried out on May 6 and 7, the NDP and the Progressive Conservatives are tied in the county.
But nothing is won in advance: the Liberals have not said their last word.
A liberal comeback?
The Liberal Party can count on historical support in the riding, notes political science professor Geneviève Tellier of the University of Ottawa. Ottawa West – Nepean “is undoubtedly a place where the party has an opportunity to make gains,” believes the political scientist. According to Pierre Cyr, former director general of operations for Premier Kathleen Wynne, the Liberal Party even operates a separate campaign in the Ottawa region. The campaign is going well in Ottawa West — Nepean, he said.
Paola, a woman of Italian origin, is one of the diehards of the county. His father voted for the Liberal Party, his family too. The bilingual voter will carry on the tradition, even if Prime Minister Doug Ford “did an incredible job during the pandemic”, she underlines in front of a grocery store. In 2018, when millions of Ontarians deserted the Liberals, Paola kept the fort and supported them in Ottawa West — Nepean.
For his part, Jeremy Roberts was able to count on voters like Bruce Rolfe to sneak a victory in 2018. Sitting on a bench near a bank on a hot day, the septuagenarian says he votes for the Progressive Conservatives since 1992. “I think Doug Ford has done a good job,” he sums up. It is not this year that Bruce Rolfe will end this series of votes for the Progressive Conservatives.
A field campaign
The NDP will have to shrug off the Liberal threat if it wants to win tight races like Ottawa West-Nepean across the province: Five of the eight ridings where the Conservatives won by less than 2.5% of the vote in 2018 were won by the Liberals in 2014. The NDP will have to convince new voters, but also to maintain its achievements.
A bag screwed to the back, Anna Destro stops her walk under the sun to speak to the To have to. The rising cost of living worries her, she says, but she feels certain issues, like mental health, are more important to the NDP, which she voted for in 2018. April, the party proposed universal mental health insurance.
The New Democrats’ plan to reduce the cost of living is part of the first chapter of their platform. Like what the parties will have to continue to reach their voters. “In the end, in Ottawa West — Nepean, the party that works best on the ground wins. This is true in most constituencies, but it is especially the case here,” said the conservative source.
When will progressive voters decide which party is best equipped to prevent a Ford government? Several Ontario voters met by The duty paid little attention to the campaign so far. “Voters wait until the last minute to do research,” observes Pierre Cyr. “In the last week, the votes will solidify,” he predicts.