Canadiens fans, I have great news – and a caveat.
Posted at 5:45 a.m.
The great news? For the first time in 42 years, the Habs have the first-ever NHL draft pick. It’s huge. This will allow him to select his favorite gifted youngster, without fearing the selections of other teams. It also ensures him to acquire an elite player at minimum wage. In the current context, where the Canadian is first in spending and last in the general classification, it is the equivalent of Monopoly to pass over the hotels of his opponents, to stop on the parking space and collect the hoard accumulated in the middle of the game for five rounds.
To fish first, rather than second or third, is a huge advantage. Researchers have quantified it. The difference in value between the first two ranks is around 10%. Between the first and the third? Around 15-20%. It is considerable.
Everything suggests that with the first choice, the Canadian will select a center player. It is the attacking position that the new management team considers most important, explained general manager Kent Hughes in his end-of-season report. That’s good, the two best hopes of the repechage are precisely two centers: the Canadian Shane Wright, who plays near here, in Kingston, and the American Logan Cooley, who played with the son of Kent Hughes in the program. development of the United States.
Regardless of the candidate chosen, if he plays in the center, his progression to the NHL will be rapid. Because unlike Alexis Lafrenière and Kaapo Kakko, stuck behind leading players at the New York Rangers, Wright or Cooley would not encounter much opposition in Montreal. It wouldn’t take them three seasons to get ahead of Jake Evans, Christian Dvorak and Ryan Poehling in the hierarchy.
Will the lucky winner be with the Canadian next season?
Most likely. I know, the new management promised to take their time with the hopefuls of the organization. But when a team acquires a diamond in the rough with the first pick, they rarely like to outsource their polishing to a junior or varsity formation. She prefers to model it herself. Kent Hughes also underlined on Tuesday evening that his “group of coaches is involved in teaching”.
And what will be the contribution of this new junior?
This is where a caveat is in order. If you watch the playoffs, you’ll notice that few young players stand out. It was the same during the season. Among the top 50 scorers, there was no player under the age of 22.
Well, okay, Jack Hughes would have ranked well if he hadn’t been injured. The New Jersey Devils star forward averaged more than one point per game. Impressive for a 20 year old. But we quickly forgot that his entry into the NHL was bumpy. At 18, Hughes had been limited to just 21 points in 61 games. In his draft season, Alexis Lafrenière had scored exactly the same number of points, in five games less.
During an interview last January, the vice-president of the Canadiens, Jeff Gorton, pointed out to me that few players drafted among the top 10 experience immediate success in the NHL. “On the contrary,” he explained. The most successful young people are those who arrive in the NHL a few years after their draft. Think Cale Makar. To Adam Fox. To Kirill Kaprizov. Prior to their arrival in the NHL, they had success at the University of Massachusetts, Harvard and Russia.
“The league is getting stronger and stronger. Faster and faster. The adjustment period for prospects is longer than ever before. Young people are successful, but not as much between 18 and 22 years old. Their learning curve became very steep. »
The first choice of the Canadian, I assure you, will be a very good player in the NHL. Sooner than later. But it would be surprising if he was dominant next season. And as talented as he is, this prospect cannot, on his own, carry the franchise on his shoulders.
Consider this: Since 2010, no top-drafted team has won a series the following spring. Even more remarkable, of all these teams, only two have won a subsequent playoff series.
- 2010 Edmonton (Taylor Hall) – Left the team before winning a series
- 2011 Edmonton (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) – First series won in 2017
- 2012 Edmonton (Nail Yakupov) – Left the team before winning a series
- 2013 Colorado (Nathan MacKinnon) – First series won in 2019
- 2014 Florida (Aaron Ekblad) – No series won since
- 2015 Edmonton (Connor McDavid) – First series won in 2017
- 2016 Toronto (Auston Matthews) – No series won since
- 2017 New Jersey (Nico Hischier) – No series won since
- 2018 Buffalo (Rasmus Dahlin) – No series won since
- 2019 New Jersey (Jack Hughes) – No series won since
- 2020 Rangers (Alexis Lafrenière) – No series won since
- 2021 Buffalo (Owen Power) – No series won since
So, yes, the Canadian will get their hands on a young prodigy. And that prospect will likely become the organization’s best offensive prospect in 40 years. It’s downright exciting. But let’s have realistic expectations. Recent history shows us that the road to reconstruction is long – even with a first choice.