(New York) Oil prices ended in mixed order on Friday, with the US WTI catching its breath after another turbulent week, in a market that remains very firm.
Updated yesterday at 4:23 p.m.
Brent crude from the North Sea for June delivery, which was the last day of use as a benchmark contract, gained 1.62% to close at $109.34.
It thus chained a fourth consecutive upward session to finish at its highest level since April 18.
As for the barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also for delivery in June, it lost 0.63% and ended at 104.69 dollars.
WTI suffered a blow in the final minutes heading into the weekend, after spending the entire session in the green.
Prices were again driven by Germany’s reversal on the issue of Russian oil imports and the prospect of an upcoming agreement on a European Union embargo.
However, for Bill O’Grady, head of research at Confluence Investment Management, operators “have not yet really integrated” the consequences of such a measure in the course.
“We could see much higher prices” if the EU agreed to cut off the Russian tap.
According to figures compiled by the Bloomberg agency, Russia managed to export, on average, 4.66 million barrels of crude per day (mb/d) in April, not far from the level posted in December (5 mb/d ), before the start of the war.
“They will be able to redirect some of their oil to Asia, but they don’t have the infrastructure to transport as much in that direction,” said Bill O’Grady.
For Edward Moya, an analyst at Oanda, if the health situation ends up improving in China, crude prices could still increase by 5%, approaching 115 dollars for Brent.
The market is not expecting any surprises from the monthly meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies of the OPEC+ agreement next Thursday.
For Bill O’Grady, ministers should stick to a further modest increase of around 400,000 barrels per day for the month of June, in accordance with the timetable adopted last July.
Increases deemed insufficient to relieve the market, especially since OPEC + was far from meeting its objectives, with actual production levels much lower than announced.
Even more than on the crude market, the tensions linked to the possible European embargo are felt on the market for refined products, in particular diesel, of which Russia was until now a major exporter.
Fear of a shortage sent its price jumping Thursday to $5.13 a gallon (3.78 liters) in the United States, an all-time high, up 83% since the start of the invasion of Ukraine .
Used by trains, trucks or boats, diesel “is the fuel that puts the (American) economy in motion”, warned Patrick de Haan, of the GasBuddy site.