[Élection ontarienne] Can parties break through to the right of Doug Ford?

At least four parties will be looking to stand out to the right of the Progressive Conservative Party in Ontario’s election, which begins next week. These parties, relying on a platform focused in particular on opposition to health measures, will try to channel the energy of the truckers’ movement to win support at the provincial level. The task promises to be difficult, by the admission of one of their candidates.

The Parti Ontario, whose leader Derek Sloan was kicked out of the Conservative caucus in 2021 because he accepted a donation from a white supremacist, is one of the most organized fringe political clans in the race, with its 48 riding associations and its 90 candidates. If elected, the party notably wants to pass a law that would prohibit the government from imposing lockdowns and health restrictions.

To support him in his campaign, Derek Sloan announced the hiring of former political adviser to President Donald Trump Roger Stone. For about a week, “he’s been advising the whole team,” explains Derek Sloan. The American political figure espouses conspiratorial ideas about the origin of COVID-19 and was sentenced to 40 months in prison in 2020 for, among other things, lying to Congress. “I think his trial was a witch hunt,” says Derek Sloan.

“Maybe it’s just a publicity stunt,” says political science professor Greg Flynn at McMaster University. Right-wing politicians in Canada have tried to import elements of the American right in the past, the political scientist recalls, but they have rarely been successful. The Ontario Party has one MP at Queen’s Park: Rick Nicholls, who was kicked out of the Progressive Conservative caucus in December 2021 because he refused to get vaccinated.

Parti Ontario will mainly fight with the New Blue Party to obtain votes to the right of Doug Ford. The party was formed in 2020 by Jim Karahalios and his wife, MP Belinda Karahalios. The latter was also expelled from the Progressive Conservative caucus because of her opposition to a health measure. The party promises to end all COVID-19 public health requirements if elected. However, there is only one requirement left in the province, which is the wearing of masks in hospitals, long-term care homes and on public transport.

A split vote?

Freedom Party candidate Mike McMullen, who lives in London, admits he has little hope of being elected in his constituency, or even seeing other MPs to Doug Ford’s right. “Many of us have the same opinion as Doug Ford, but the vote is fragmented,” admits the one who obtained only 1.6% of the vote as the candidate of the People’s Party of Canada in 2019. According to Martin Masse, spokesperson for the People’s Party of Canada, party supporters are scattered across Ontario.

In December, PPC leader Maxime Bernier urged the New Blue Party, the Ontario Party and the Ontario First Party to unite under one banner, led by MPP Randy Hiller. His party, the Ontario First Party, however, has not been active since announcing his retirement from politics in March. “At this stage, it is probably too late to hope for a unified opposition from right-wing parties,” says Martin Masse.

According to political scientist Greg Flynn, the anti-sanitary movement in Ontario also lost a figurehead when former Progressive Conservative MP Roman Baber entered the Conservative Party leadership race. “Randy Hillier and Roman Baber could have been the faces of this movement,” he says. Their departure works in favor of Premier Doug Ford.

University of Toronto political science professor Eric Merkley doubts the long-term popularity of these parties. “As the pandemic fades, campaigning on health measures becomes less relevant. These parties will lose stamina,” he analyses. Canadian institutions and the parliamentary system make the extreme right less influential in Canada, says Eric Merkley.

In the short term, these parties enter the race at a time when the vast majority of health measures have already been lifted in the province. Greg Flynn does not expect to see a far-right candidate win, even in rural areas, where the People’s Party of Canada had more support. “They might do well, but the Progressive Conservative Party usually wins rural areas with such a big lead that it won’t affect the outcome,” he explains.

This story is supported by the Local Journalism Initiative, funded by the Government of Canada.

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