The Russian government, which is irritated by the support of Western countries for the regime of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, multiplies the warnings intended for them by leaving the prospect of a widening of the conflict.
Posted at 12:00 a.m.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov notably warned on Thursday that the stated willingness of these states to “pour weapons, including heavy weapons” into the country for the benefit of Kyiv “threatens the security of the continent and provokes the ‘instability’.
President Vladimir Putin had stressed the day before that any attempt to interfere in Ukraine that posed an “unacceptable” threat to Russia would receive a “lightning-fast” response.
PHOTO MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, in virtual meeting with his Security Council, Friday, in the Kremlin
He specified that his regime had all the tools required to act – including “things that no one else can boast of currently having” – without being more specific.
Russia “frustrated”
Justin Massie, a specialist in defense and security issues attached to the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM), notes that these threats are part of “the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is under attack by NATO” and seeks to defend itself through its action in Ukraine.
This message has been conveyed since the beginning of the conflict, but has intensified recently, which testifies to “the frustration felt by Russia in the face of the difficulties encountered in Ukraine on the military level”, underlines the analyst, who does not see how Moscow could envisage a direct confrontation with the Atlantic Alliance.
Conventionally, whether in terms of land or air forces, Russia would be unable to compete with NATO member countries without incurring huge losses.
Justin Massie, specialist in defense and security issues attached to UQAM
Pierre Jolicoeur, vice-rector for research at the Royal Military College Saint-Jean, notes that the Russian army already seems to have “its hands full” with the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine to take the Donbass.
“I don’t think Russia would benefit from widening the conflict,” says the researcher, citing estimates that the Russian military has lost nearly a quarter of its “committed military capability” in Ukraine since mid-February.
“Putin does not want a direct confrontation with NATO. It would be a disaster,” insists Mr. Jolicoeur, who hardly finds the idea of a nuclear strike mentioned a few times by the Kremlin any more credible.
Destabilization efforts in Moldova
Russia’s ability to escalate in the face of Western countries is not limited to brute force, however, warns the researcher, who refers to the announcement this week of the interruption of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as an effective means of increasing the pressure.
The European Union has assured that it would be able to offset the decline in both countries, but the situation will quickly become unmanageable if other larger European states are targeted in turn by Moscow, notes Mr. Jolicoeur.
The Kremlin could also seek to escalate the conflict through destabilization efforts in countries in the region that are not members of NATO, such as Moldova, which has been ruled for some years by a pro-Western government.
PHOTO PROVIDED BY THE MINISTRY OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS OF THE SELF-PROCLAIMED REPUBLIC OF TRANSNISTRIA
Destroyed radio antennas lying on the ground in Mayak, in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, on April 26.
Pro-Russian leaders in the breakaway region of Transnistria in the east of the country claimed this week that Ukrainian forces had carried out attacks including on a village where a large Russian ammunition depot is located.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that it could be a staging orchestrated by Moscow to justify sending additional forces likely to reinforce the contingent of 1,500 soldiers already there.
In particular, they could later be used in an offensive against the Ukrainian port city of Odessa, located not far to the east, or at the very least constitute a threat likely to weigh on the strategic decisions of the Ukrainian army, notes the ‘organization.
The Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies, a British research institute specializing in defense and security issues, notes that Moscow may want to make Western countries understand that their support for Ukraine risks having “consequences for scale” for the region.
If proven, the attempt to destabilize Moldova could also testify, according to Pierre Jolicoeur, to the fact that the Russian government has not given up on expanding its area of influence despite the difficulties encountered in Ukraine and wants to act before the country does not switch definitively to the NATO camp.