The hypothesis according to which Ukrainian missiles hit the Russian flagship Moskva, as claimed by Kyiv, is a credible scenario, agree many experts while Moscow assures that the cruiser sank in the Black Sea following a fire.
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As if to come to accredit this thesis, a strike seriously damaged during the night a factory in the Kyiv region manufacturing Neptune anti-ship missiles, which the Ukrainian army claims to have used against the Russian building, journalists noted on Friday.
Russia, for its part, claims that its 186-meter-long missile ship was “severely damaged” by a fire which caused the explosion of ammunition.
The Moskva then sank while being towed to the port of Sevastopol, “in rough sea conditions”, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, quoted by Russian agencies.
A version of the facts questioned on Twitter by retired American general Mark Hertling, who notes “winds of 6 km / h and a little rain in the last 24 hours in the Sevastopol region”.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby refrained Thursday from confirming the origin of the fire aboard the Moskva, while considering “possible that they hit it with a Neptune missile”, which has ” sufficient radius of action to reach the Moskva”.
This Ukrainian anti-ship missile, equivalent to the Exocet of the French Navy, entered service with the Ukrainian forces in March 2021, according to the Ukrainian press. The Neptune is an evolution of the Soviet Zvezda Kh-35 anti-ship missile, with much improved performance.
Fired from a shore battery, this coastal defense system would have a range of around 300 kilometers. The missile only unmasks its radar in the advanced phase of approaching its target, to protect itself as much as possible from enemy countermeasures, explains a Western military source.
“Dated” missile defenses
These countermeasures can be of two kinds: either by jamming the missile’s radar (electronic warfare), or by destroying the missile with a wall of shells fired by a close-in weapon system of the American Phalanx type, named Duet in its Russian version.
It is unclear whether the Moskva had either of these devices.
One certainty, however, according to H. Eldon Sutton, an expert at the American Naval Institute, “the anti-missile defenses of the Moskva were dated”. In addition to Vulkan anti-ship missiles and Fort S-300 sea-air missiles, the Russian ship was equipped with Ossa short-range missiles and anti-aircraft guns.
“It seems that the Moskva is the only ship of its class still in service not to have received during its modernization new radars capable of effectively locating low-flying targets such as the Neptune anti-ship missiles”, underlines the site Russian information company Meduza, based in Latvia.
Another factor of vulnerability: “the Moskva cruiser made relatively predictable movements in the Black Sea” since the beginning of the Russian invasion, underlines H. Eldon Sutton.
“The question is to understand why Russia was keeping this building so close to the coast without knowing if the Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles were in service,” adds Rob Lee, an expert from the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) in Washington.
Russian strikes from the sea are effective, but limited in number (…) and the loss of the Moskva is unlikely to be a major setback. But if confirmed, Ukraine’s ability to hit warships in the Black Sea could force the Russians to deploy additional air defenses aboard its vessels or move them away from positions close to the Ukrainian coast. », Comments the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“Before this plausible Ukrainian missile launch, the Russians did not have air superiority, which is a sine qua non for launching an amphibious operation. Today, they are less than ever ready to do so,” commented a senior officer in the French Navy.
Especially since the forces of President Volodymyr Zelensky could soon receive additional weapons to guard their shores. Visiting Kyiv on Saturday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged to supply Ukraine with Harpoon anti-ship missiles.