France is called to the polls on Sunday for the first round of a presidential election largely overshadowed by the din of war in Ukraine, and which should, barring a dramatic change, repeat the 2017 duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.
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Favorite in the polls for months, the outgoing president, who entered the campaign very late, however sees the gap narrowing with his far-right rival, whose victory is no longer inconceivable, which would constitute an absolute first under the Fifth Republic.
Although largely pushed into the background with the war in Ukraine, the French presidential election, which involves 12 candidates, nevertheless involves crucial issues, both nationally and internationally, France remaining a heavyweight in the European Union, she currently chairs. But major themes, in particular that of the fight against climate change, were almost absent from the campaign.
Faced with a completely split left, a sluggish right, the polls have all been pointing in the same direction for months: a qualification in the first round of the outgoing president with some 28% of the vote, ahead of the far-right candidate with 23%. But the projections for the second round point the way to a possible victory for Ms Le Pen, if the margin of error is taken into account, a study giving her only three points behind her rival.
Entering the campaign late due to the health crisis and then the war in Ukraine, confident in the scenario of an announced re-election, Mr. Macron seemed to become aware of the danger and called for “mobilization” in the face of a “trivialized” extreme right.
During a big meeting in Paris last Saturday, he presented himself as the candidate of “progress against withdrawal and of Europe against the nationalists”, and promised to relaunch “in consultation” his unfinished reforms. However, he shunned any debate with the other candidates, who accused him, like Valérie Pécresse (right), of “scandalous evasion”.
Smooth speech
Faced with the outgoing president, Marine Le Pen and her party, the National Rally, consider that they have “never been so close to victory” and that “the dynamics have never been so powerful”.
Data over after his failure against Mr. Macron in 2017, and in particular after a debate between two disastrous rounds, the daughter of the sulphurous tribune and historical figure of the French far right Jean-Marie Le Pen patiently climbed the slope, smoothed its image and refocused its discourse.
First worried by the eruption in the fall of another far-right candidate, Eric Zemmour, she finally benefited from the ultra-radical and divisive positions of the former polemicist, which made her comparatively more moderate. .
While Mr. Zemmour, who is now shrinking in the polls, dwelled on his anti-immigration and anti-Islam themes, Mrs. Le Pen focused her campaign on purchasing power, the main concern of the French, promising emergency measures such as the abolition of VAT on certain products. However, his program remains very radical on immigration and sovereign issues, analysts note.
And at a time of emotion aroused by the atrocities attributed to Russian forces in Ukraine, her former pro-Putin positions – Ms. Le Pen had notably been the only French candidate to meet the head of the Kremlin before the first round of the presidential election. in 2017 – provide an angle of attack for Mr. Macron.
The unknown Melenchon
The leader of the radical left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in third position in the polls, on the strength of a breakthrough to 15.5%, hopes for his part to provoke a “useful vote” in his favor, which would make it possible to qualify the left for the second round.
“I think I have a very serious chance of getting there,” assured Mr. Mélenchon on Tuesday, assuring that a Macron / Le Pen second round “would not take place”.
Supporter of a program of “break” with economic liberalism and champion of a more parliamentary and participatory Sixth Republic, Mr. Mélenchon came 4th in 2017 with 19.58% of the vote.
Far behind him, the environmental candidate Yannick Jadot oscillates around 5%, the communist Fabien Roussel at 2.5% and the socialist mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo floats at 2%.
On the right, Valérie Pécresse is back (8% of voting intentions) and is neck and neck with Eric Zemmour (9%).
Ms. Pécresse is trying to remobilize an electorate very courted by her opponents, from the far right to Mr. Macron’s camp, and presents herself as the only heir to the Gaullist and Republican right.
Four other “small” candidates, the Trotskyists Philippe Poutou and Nathalie Arthaud, the rural candidate Jean Lassalle and the sovereignist Nicolas Dupond-Aignan oscillate between 0.5% and 3% of the vote.
There remains the abstention factor, a major determinant of the election. Some 30% of French people could abstain on April 10, a record level for a first round of presidential elections under the Fifth Republic, underlines an Ipsos SopraSteria poll published on Sunday.
Macron absent from a political program
In the second round, the candidate president continues to precede the far-right candidate, according to two opinion polls published on Tuesday: 56% against 44%, for Ipsos Sopra-Steria and 53% against 47%, according to Elabe.
A gap reduced to three points in a Harris Interactive poll on Monday: 51.5% for Emmnuel Macron, 48.5% for Marine Le Pen.
“The last points that separate you from 50% are the most difficult to win,” said political scientist Jean-Yves Camus, a specialist in the far right.
After a giant meeting on Saturday, Emmanuel Macron hit the road with a trip to Brittany (west).
The outgoing president referred to “other candidates” their “complacency vis-à-vis Vladimir Putin” and their “funding on the side of Russia”.
Mr. Macron was referring to Marine Le Pen received by the Russian president in 2017 and whose party continues to repay a loan of around nine million euros to a Russian creditor.
The candidate president again defended his record and his vision of a strong France in “a strong Europe”, claiming to have “kept” the commitments made at the start of his five-year term.
Mr. Macron has been criticized by his opponents, being the only one of the 12 presidential candidates to decline the invitation to the program “Élysée 2022” Tuesday evening on the public channel France 2, officially for “reason of agenda”.
The death of a young Jewish man hit by a tram in the Paris region in mid-February, after being beaten by young people, also burst into the campaign this week, after candidates, including the two far-right candidates , pointed to a possible anti-Semitic act.
Emmanuel Macron asked for “complete clarity” on this affair, believing that it should not give rise to “political manipulation”.
Subsequently, the Bobigny prosecutor Éric Mathais affirmed that nothing at this stage supported the thesis of an attack “committed for discriminatory reasons”.