franceinfo would like to remind you that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.
Emmanuel Macron remains at the top of voting intentions in the first round of the 2022 presidential election, but his lead has narrowed, according to our daily Ipsos-Sopra Steria barometer for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France, updated Monday, April 4. According to this poll, outgoing President Emmanuel Macron receives 26.5% of voting intentions (margin of error ± 2.9 points) with an increase of half a point, ahead of Marine Le Pen, stable at 21% (margin of error ± 2.6 points). Jean-Luc Mélenchon, still in third position, gains half a point and is at 16% (margin of error ± 2.4 points), ahead of Éric Zemmour, who lost half a point to 10.5% (margin of error ± 2 points).
Behind, Valérie Pécresse is still below the 10% mark: the LR candidate loses a point to 8.5% (margin of error ±1.8 point). The EELV candidate Yannick Jadot is also down: he loses half a point to 5.5% of the voting intentions (margin of error ± 1.5 point).
Fabien Roussel regains half a point and reaches 3.5% (margin of error ±1.2 point). Behind him, Jean Lassalle also gains half a point and collects 3% of the voting intentions (margin of error ± 1.1 point). Anne Hidalgo is stable at 2% (margin of error ± 0.9 point), joined by Nicolas Dupont-Aignan who wins half a point (1.5%, margin of error ± 0.9 point). Philippe Poutou loses half a point to reach 1% of voting intentions (margin of error ±0.6 point). Nathalie Arthaud does not move 0.5% (margin of error ± 0.5 point).
To date, 69% of French people questioned are sure that they will vote in the first round, on April 10 (range: between 67 and 71%). And of those who are certain to vote, 69% have made their choice and it will be final, while 31% believe that their vote can still change.
The voters of Emmanuel Macron are, with those of Marine Le Pen, those who are the most sure of their choice: 82% say that their intention to vote is final. They are 76% for Eric Zemmour, and 74% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon. It is among the voters of Valérie Pécresse and Yannick Jadot that we still find the most undecided. For Valérie Pécresse, 43% believe they can still change their minds. For Yannick Jadot, the undecided are in the majority: 55% are not yet sure of their vote.
This barometer is produced for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France until the first round of the presidential election and is based on the methodology of “rolling poll”, or rolling survey. Every day, from Sunday to Friday, about 500 people registered on the electoral lists are questioned. The results published on a daily basis systematically report the last three samples questioned, to obtain a reconstituted sample of approximately 1,500 people.
This Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France published on April 1 is based on a total sample of 1,687 people registered on the electoral lists, constituting a representative sample of the French population aged 18 and over. The results presented show the accumulation of the interviews carried out over the last three days. The sample was questioned by Internet and was constituted according to the method of quotas (sex, age, profession of the person questioned, category of agglomeration, region).