While headlines over the weekend highlighted the murders of unarmed civilians and probable war crimes by the Russian military, another aspect of this news is also important.
All this horror becomes visible because of the retreat—shall we say: the rout? — Russian forces, which prove incapable of holding a few square kilometers in Ukraine, except at the cost of atrocities.
Already, this war of conquest has failed. kyiv will not fall; there will be no annexation of the small country by the big one. Constrained, the Russian army withdrew from the north. One can imagine that Ukraine will be able to recover all of the territory lost on this strip 10 to 120 kilometers thick, from the Russian and Belarusian borders.
More complex situation in the south and south-east of the country, where such a quick outcome seems less feasible, and where the Russian effort on the ground will be refocused. But beware ! The Ukrainians have already thwarted the calculations and predictions of the whole world; they could also surprise there.
If there is one place where we closely follow the entanglement of Moscow’s “great” army in Ukraine, it is in Beijing. Because China has its Ukraine: the island of Taiwan, thorn in the side of the Empire, towards which the inclinations of invasion are not even hidden.
In Moscow as in Beijing, the existence of this “other” who is decreed to be “self”, who is denied the right to exist independently, is intolerable. “Ukraine is Russia”; “Taiwan is China”… regardless of the opinion of the “locals” who think otherwise.
In addition to the territorial logic, the logic of empire—an empire amputated, of course, by Western villainy—the ideology and the political system add, in both cases, a powerful cleavage.
In both situations, authoritarian kleptocracies under the aegis of a self-invested “strongman” with a historical mission (Xi and Putin) take a dim view of the emergence or persistence of a foreign body: Western-style democracy presents on their doorsteps, in their geography, a veritable virus in the system.
It has been proven that the Slavo-Ukrainian-Russian “historical matrix” does not inevitably lead to an authoritarian, paternalistic and despotic state. Ditto for Taiwan, which comes from the Chinese historical and cultural space, but where political evolution has taken a completely different path than that of Beijing.
In Taiwan since the “Quiet Revolution” (Anjing Geming) of 1986, in Ukraine since independence in 1991, people are trying their hand at democracy. With real success although, in the Ukrainian case, zigzagging. The presence of inequality, oligarchs and corruption does not invalidate this underlying trend.
Free and uncertain elections, alternation in power, freedom of expression, lively social debates, public demands from minorities: things that are omnipresent and commonplace in kyiv or Taipei… but unknown and intolerable in Beijing or Moscow.
In early 2022, there was speculation that a Russian military intervention in Ukraine would give Beijing a golden opportunity to do the same in Taiwan.
Western attention and resources would then be divided, with Americans held back by a crisis in Europe. A “little fast” in Ukraine would have served to make another one pass, in Taiwan… in front of a dumbfounded West, nailed to the spot.
Today, there is no “small speed” of the Russian army. Its stagnation in the face of Ukrainian resistance and the strong Western reaction would rather make Chinese leaders think.
Of course, the situations are different. Taiwan is a small island of 100 by 300 kilometers, while the Ukrainian territory has depth and a land connection with Europe. How far would the United States go in defending Taiwan? Would the reinforcements surrender?
On paper, the Taiwanese army is larger and better equipped than the Ukrainian army. His determination and that of society to resist an imperial dictatorship could be compared.
A prediction: Beijing will think twice before invading.