After highlighting the apprehended impacts of the climate crisis, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is due to publish a report on Monday which will address the means to be implemented to avoid the worst. According to preliminary information obtained by The dutyscientists should propose a profound questioning of our “way of life” and our dependence on fossil fuels.
A document recently produced by the IPCC thus underlines that climate science advocates “behavioral and lifestyle changes” to rapidly reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These changes would involve significant transformations in the transport sector, but also a “modification” of our diet, which currently includes a significant intake of animal products.
The report must in particular highlight the impact of “livestock production”. In a study published in 2019 in Nature, researchers suggested a shift to a more “plant-based” daily diet. On average, the inhabitants of the planet should thus reduce their consumption of red meat by almost 75%. For Canadians, this decline would be closer to 85%, taking for granted a switch to a single meat-based meal per week.
“Generally, scientists agree that the transition to a low-carbon society will require a systemic change in infrastructure and behavior,” says the IPCC summary, which was reportedly written last week. .
The new report by climate experts, which was still under negotiation on Sunday, must also propose “efficient use of materials and energy”, in a context of climate crisis and world population growth. Taking note of the fact that global GHG emissions will have to be reduced to virtually zero in less than 30 years, scientists believe that this objective implies a marked decrease in the demand for energy and resources. The IPCC estimates that if we act effectively, we could reduce global energy demand by 40% by 2050 compared to 2018 levels.
Demand Reduction
In the wake of other scientific reports, the IPCC must indicate in its report that “the use of fossil fuels must decrease dramatically” to limit global warming to a viable threshold, i.e. a maximum of 1.5°C, compared to in the pre-industrial era. At the present time, an increase in the production of fossil fuels is rather expected, including in Canada.
In order to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, the scientists who wrote the new report believe that an “electrification” based on renewable energies is “essential”. According to the International Energy Agency, recalls the IPCC, “the deployment of solar, photovoltaic and wind energy must be twice as large as what has already been announced at the global level to stay on a trajectory of 1.5° VS “.
To achieve this, colossal investments will be necessary, must insist the report, recalling that the sums allocated to “climate financing” have increased little since the fifth assessment report produced in 2014 by the IPCC. The amounts have thus reached just under 600 billion dollars per year, or “ten times less” than what is deemed necessary “each year by 2030” to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
Climate delays
The IPCC report must also address the thorny issue of carbon “removal” to achieve carbon neutrality targets by 2050. “Removal methods range from enhancing natural carbon uptake through reforestation, nature restoration and protection, to ‘negative emissions technology’ such as direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage,” says the document obtained by The duty.
Scientists also point out that climate action is dangerously slow. “Today, the average annual emission reductions needed to stay below 1.5°C are four times higher than they would have been if collective mitigation and ambition had started in 2010. according to the United Nations Environment Programme. “This highlights the need to act quickly,” insists the IPCC.
Global CO2 emissions should decrease by 45% in 2030, compared to the level of 2010, to hope to limit the upheavals of the climate. Thereafter, a goal of “net zero emissions” should be achieved by 2050 at the latest.
However, global GHG emissions are still increasing today, so that global warming could exceed 1.5°C between 2030 and 2040, at the latest. Last year, global emissions from the energy sector hit a record high, according to data released in early March by the International Energy Agency. And more than six years after the signing of the Paris Agreement, humanity is still on the path to catastrophic global warming. According to the UN, warming is expected to reach at least 2.7°C by the end of the century, which would make the world downright “unrecognizable”.
Already visible impacts
At the beginning of March, a report produced by the IPCC also warned against the consequences of this warming, which is mainly attributable to our dependence on fossil fuels.
The “cascading” impacts are already more and more difficult to manage, said the scientific group at the time, stressing that millions of people living in Africa, Asia, Central America, South America and Island countries are now directly exposed to food insecurity and a lack of access to drinking water. Globally, “3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change”.
Rising temperatures, heat waves, droughts and floods affect not only more and more human populations, but also a multitude of ecosystems, noted the IPCC. These phenomena are already having major impacts on biodiversity, which will “increase” as the climate deteriorates. The scientists also specified that coral reefs, wetlands, tropical forests, polar areas and mountain ecosystems have already exceeded the limit threshold for adaptation.
In addition to recalling the significant delays in the fight against climate change, the IPCC stressed that humanity is slow to implement the measures necessary to adapt to global warming and its impacts. Most actions are ‘fragmented’, ‘small-scale’ and designed ‘to respond to current impacts’, not future ones.