Towards the start of an evacuation operation from the besieged port of Mariupol? “Last night we were informed by the International Committee of the Red Cross that Russia was ready to open access to humanitarian convoys from Mariupol” towards the city of Zaporizhia, but passing through Berdiansk, controlled by the Russian army, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said in a video posted on Telegram. “On the Mariupol corridor we send 45 buses” Thursday, March 31, she added.
“We will do everything so that the buses can enter Mariupol and evacuate those who remain in the city.”
Iryna Vereshchuk, Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraineon Telegram
On Wednesday evening, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the start of a “silent regime”that is to say a local ceasefire from 10 a.m. Thursday, to allow this evacuation “with the direct participation of representatives of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)”.
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Does this operation signify the start of a large-scale evacuation of civilians from Mariupol? On Tuesday, the conditions for initiating a humanitarian evacuation operation were not “not met at this stage”, had estimated the Elysée, after a new exchange between the French and Russian presidents. Emmanuel Macron announced the launch “in the next few days” of“a humanitarian operation” evacuation of the city on Friday, at a press conference concluding a European summit in Brussels. “We will, in conjunction with Turkey and Greece, launch a humanitarian operation to evacuate all those who wish to leave Mariupol”he said, adding that he would have “within 48 to 72 hours a new discussion with the president Putin to fix the details and secure the terms.
The situation is “dramatic” and “catastrophic” in the city of Mariupol, where around 170,000 inhabitants remain stranded, according to information from the French presidency. The city’s deputy mayor Sergei Orlov says that “90% of the buildings are destroyed” and “the city is constantly under the bombs”. According to the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) (link in English)the situation is “more desperate than ever”.
“It’s a humanitarian disaster, people no longer have access to gas, electricity, or even water. A child died of dehydration,” illustrious with franceinfo Vera Ageeva, associate professor at the University of Economic Studies (HSE) in Saint-Petersburg (Russia), and PhD student at Sciences Po Paris. An International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) building came under Russian shelling on Wednesday, Telegram reported (in Russian) Lioudmila Denisova, Human Rights Officer at the Ukrainian Parliament. Unverifiable information from an independent source, Mariupol being besieged for a month.
According to the Elysée, this terrible context of the siege prevents “freedom of movement of civilian populations”. “Under the conditions of humanitarian law, we cannot consider that there is free movement of civilian populations, and therefore a possibility for civilians who wish to leave the city in the direction” of their choice, developed the presidency on Tuesday to explain the impossibility, “at this stage”, of a major evacuation operation.
Does Moscow’s announcement of a local ceasefire change the situation, particularly from a security point of view? The ICRC has declared itself ready “to lead” these operations from Friday, provided they have sufficient guarantees. “We hope to be able to organize the humanitarian operation tomorrow, to deliver equipment and facilitate the exit of people wishing to leave the city. We need very specific agreements”, develops Alyona Synenko, spokesperson for the ICRC currently in kyiv.
“Which roads? At what time, and for how many people? We are talking about dangerous areas where there has been intense fighting. Very concerted agreements are needed so that the road is not mined. clear to the military.”
Alyona Synenko, ICRC spokesperson in Kyivat franceinfo
According to the spokesperson, contacted late Thursday morning, “We are not there yet, but we hope” come to these agreements. “It is only then that we can talk about security guarantees.”
Until now, “the resistance on the Russian side” made it very difficult to start an evacuation from Mariupol, as it would show “a massive evacuation of a city that they want to take at all costs”, to analyse Vera Ageeva. “Mariupol is strategically and politically important.” Taking the city would allow “connect [les “Républiques” séparatistes prorusses] Lugansk and Donetsk to Crimea, to better feed them”. There was therefore, in the eyes of the researcher, a “lack of will on the Russian side to organize this kind of evacuation”.
“The most important thing for Russia is to organize the evacuation from Mariupol to Russia, not to Ukraine and Europe.”
Vera Ageeva, professor at the School of Higher Economic Studies in Saint Petersburgat franceinfo
According to the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin had explained to Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday that, “to find a solution to the difficult humanitarian situation in this city, the Ukrainian nationalist fighters had to stop resisting and lay down their arms”. The Russian leader “listened to requests” of its French counterpart in terms of humanitarian access and evacuation, responding “that he was going to think about it”had assured the Elysée.
The promise of a local ceasefire in Mariupol shows that a “international pressure” was able to play on Moscow, believes Vera Ageeva. “Russia had to take a step, even if they didn’t agree too much.” The researcher calls for caution, however, pointing to the failure of previous evacuation attempts and testimonies of Russian fire on people trying to evacuate.
“The Russians may be taking a kind of break. There is a window that may be very short but you have to use it.”
Vera Ageevaat franceinfo
For the researcher, these announcements are “a step in the right direction” from the Russian authorities, but “we are not yet at a major evacuation”, she warns. “This is just the beginning.”