what assessment, a month after the start of the offensive of the Russian army?

A month ago, on the night of February 23 to 24, the first Russian soldiers crossed the Ukrainian border posts. The rapid offensive of the first days was followed by clashes lasting several days, then weeks… And 28 days later, if the Russian troops seem to be marking time, the bombardments continue in kyiv as in Kharkiv and the situation becomes particularly worrying in cities like Mariupol.

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What to remember from this first month of conflict, which is the largest military offensive in Europe since the Second World War? Between the thousands of amateur videos of this war relayed on the Internet almost live, the propaganda induced by the two camps or the difficult access to certain areas for journalists, it is impossible to draw up an exhaustive assessment. Franceinfo is still trying to take stock of these four weeks of war, with supporting graphics.

The slow advance of Russian troops

When Vladimir Putin launches the offensive, he intends to carry out a “special military operation” like a blitzkrieg. But faced with the resistance of the Ukrainian troops and the logistical disappointments, his ambitions dwindled. The Russian army does not manage to keep the international airport of Hostomel, taken a few days and yet strategic; it is also kept away from kyiv and Kharkiv, at least for several weeks.

In the South, Russian troops still make a breakthrough, according to the Institute for the Study of War (in English), especially. Leaving Crimea, annexed in 2014, they joined Kherson in the first days of the offensive and reached the nuclear power plant in Zaporijia on March 4, along the Dnieper River. The Russian army then joined Mariupol, a strategic port to operate the junction between the recent conquests and the Donbass. Another key area: the Black Sea. Since the start of the conflict, the Russian Navy has imposed a maritime blockade on the port of Odessa.

These cities controlled by the Russian troops are however sometimes not completely acquired. Numerous demonstrations by residents, from the first days of the occupation, were reported in several towns in southern Ukraine. On March 23, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz considered that the Russian offensive in Ukraine “get bogged down[ait] despite all the destruction it causes day after day”.

The opaque count of victims

Many videos posted online show bodies littering the streets of some Ukrainian cities. It is however impossible, for the time being, to know an exact assessment of the number of Ukrainians and Russians killed since February 24. Each authority or government advances its figures over the main battles, but none of them is verifiable. An exhaustive assessment impossible as well concerning the civilians as the soldiers.

>>War in Ukraine: law of silence, lack of control, underestimation… The difficult count of civilian and military victims

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in Ukraine counted, on March 21, 925 civilians killed since February 24, including 75 children, as well as 1,496 injured. By reviewing several assessments announced by Ukrainian local authorities, we greatly exceed these figures. On March 15, the Mariupol authorities counted 2,400 victims; on March 16, the Kharkiv emergency services numbered 500; on March 21, the town hall of kyiv announced 65.

Be that as it may, the civilian losses are expected to be extremely heavy. Regarding its estimates, OHCHR acknowledges that “actual figures are considerably higher, as reports from areas where intense fighting is ongoing have been delayed”. And to cite the seats of Mariupol or Izioum. The fighting has also driven more than 3.5 million Ukrainians out of their country.

The battle of numbers is also raging in the military ranks. kyiv claims to have killed 14,700 Russian soldiers, against 1,300 soldiers lost in its ranks. Moscow only recognized 498 personnel killed in its army on March 2, and has not communicated on the subject since. For their part, American intelligence quoted by various media would estimate the number of Russian losses at between 3,000 and 7,000, and between 2,000 and 4,000 for Ukrainian soldiers.

An uncertain material balance sheet

From the point of view of material losses, taking stock of the damage inflicted by each side is just as difficult. We knew the flagrant imbalance between what the Russian army weighs against the Ukrainian troops, but it is difficult to visualize what the losses of the two parties represent.

On March 18, Ukraine announced, for example, that it had destroyed 450 Russian tanks, 870 light vehicles, 1,448 armored transport vehicles and 112 helicopters. But these figures are impossible to verify. On the other hand, since the beginning of the conflict, the specialized blog Oryx (in English) maintains an inventory of the material losses of the two camps, noted over the videos published online. “This list includes destroyed equipment for which we have evidence, photos or videos. Therefore, the amount of destroyed equipment is much higher than what we identify”explain the authors (in English).

This count also has a bias: the videos published are often those of Ukrainians, it is easy to imagine that they show more Russian losses than those suffered by Ukrainian troops. As of March 23, the site had counted 1,721 Russian losses, and 508 Ukrainians, all materials combined.

Massive use of cluster bombs

An element widely documented since February 24 concerns the use of certain weapons, and particularly cluster bombs. These warheads are formidable because they explode in two stages: before landing, they release a multitude of small bombs, which will scatter and explode over an area of ​​several tens of meters, in a vague manner. This principle of blind explosion makes any targeting impossible, and civilians become collateral victims.

A hundred countries have signed the Oslo Convention to ban this type of ammunition, but Moscow and kyiv are not part of it. Russia had already used it in 2014 during the Ukrainian conflict, then in Syria. Since February 24, several NGOs have investigated these uses, such as the investigation site Bellingcat (in English)Amnesty International (in English)or Human Rights Watch (in English).

From images identified and geolocated by these NGOs, as well as by the online investigative collective Center for Information Resilience (in English)we have reconstructed some of these attacks.

Click on the arrows below to explore the map

Hospitals and schools are not spared

Moscow has repeatedly asserted that its troops do not target civilians. However, a very large number of infrastructures have been bombed since the start of the conflict. Starting with hospitals. On March 17, the World Health Organization announced that it had counted 43 health establishments attacked. (in English). According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Health, there were 63 of them, seven of which were totally destroyed.

Again, it is difficult to confirm these figures, but this Russian strategy recalls the numerous bombings of hospitals in Syria. Amateur images posted online by Ukrainians help document these events.

Click on the arrows below to explore the map

Schools are also the target of bombardments, and some are totally destroyed. On the map above, we have listed about fifteen of them, but this count is far from exhaustive. Given that Ukrainian troops use some schools for shelter, it is unclear what proportion of these Russian strikes targeted kyiv army soldiers.

After four weeks of bombing, some areas are disfigured. The situation is particularly uncertain in Mariupol, where several testimonies tell of intense destruction. Satellite images show this. Like here, in Volnovakha, near Mariupol, where the images of the company Planet show in particular the destruction of a school, on March 14.

So many elements that feed the accusations against Russia. After the bombing of the Mariupol hospital on March 9, European officials described the events as “heinous war crime”. Several international organizations have begun to document the conflict in detail. “We call on the international community to work with the International Criminal Court to collect all these major human rights violations, so that one day the perpetrators can be judged”claims Amnesty International.