Moldova, “in the wrong place at the wrong time”, turns to Europe to secure its future

When she learned that Russia had invaded Ukraine, Marina Oprea first “cry”. In a state of shock, this resident of Chisinau, met in a restaurant in the Moldavian capital, wondered if she should leave her country, which shares a border with Ukraine. “I thought World War III had just started.”, she breathes. But two weeks after the start of the conflict, the “pressure is down” and “a form of normality has set in.” It is no longer a question of leaving. At least “for the moment”.

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Like Marina, many Moldovans woke up paralyzed on February 24 when they discovered the entry of Russian tanks into Ukraine. Some, especially from the upper classes, have left, others have already packed their bags in case they have to flee. The former Soviet republic, which has 2.6 million inhabitants, is neither a member of the European Union nor of NATO and has only about 7,000 active soldiers. A vulnerability that prompted the government not to impose sanctions on Russia.

Three weeks after the start of the conflict, life goes on in the streets of Chisinau. On Boulevard Stefan cel Mare, the main artery of the capital, Moldovans are enjoying the restaurants, bars and shops that are open as usual despite the state of emergency declared by the government. But certain details – the cars registered in Ukraine driving through the city, the staff of international organizations present in the hotels, the appeals for donations for the reception of refugees – remind us that the war is not very far away.

At the central market, “the pulse of Moldova”you have to try your luck several times, in this maze of colorful stands, so that they agree to answer us. “I’m not talking about politics”, slips a passerby in a black down jacket, while the snow is falling gently. Same answer from the owner of a candy stand, who mumbles an insult against Russia under his breath. Yelena, a fruit seller who observes us with a curious look, agrees to talk to us. “Of course I’m scaredshe explains. But I was born here and I have nowhere to go, so I’m staying.”

A little further on, Gregory, a prune seller with rosy cheeks from the cold, doesn’t think “that Russia will arrive here”. He has “family in Ukraine, including two nephews who are in the army” for which “he is deeply worried”. Many Moldovans have ties to Ukraine and Russia. If the official language of the country is Romanian, Russian is commonly spoken by a majority of the population, and a Ukrainian minority is present on the territory.

Thirty-one years after gaining independence, the shadow of Moscow still hangs over Moldova. According to a survey carried out by the Magenta Consulting agency between March 3 and 5 (in English)26% of the Moldovan population consider the Russian invasion as “a special liberation operation”, the words used by the Kremlin, which refuses to talk about war. A consequence “Russian television programs broadcast in the country”, according to Mihai Mogildea, expert at the Institute for European Reforms and Policies (Ipre). The Moldovan government also banned two Russian channels, for propaganda, in the days following the start of the conflict.

Moscow’s presence is not only felt on the airwaves. Transnistria, a self-proclaimed pro-Russian micro-state, in which Russian troops are present, worries the authorities. Located between the Dniester River and the Ukrainian border, this territory has had its own government since 1992. The population, one third of whom is Russian, has few freedoms, the media being controlled by local authorities. “Since the start of the war in Ukraine, nothing special has happened there, which is rather abnormal”explains, a little surprised, Victoria Olari, of the Institute for Strategic Initiatives, a Moldovan think tank.

At the central market of Chisinau, traders hardly expand on the subject of Transnistria. “We are a small country, in the wrong place at the wrong time”, breathes Igor, earphones screwed in the ears, who holds with his wife Inga a stall of beauty products located at the end of a small badly lit alley. The Russian-speaking couple, who also have family in Odessa, a major port city in southwestern Ukraine, condemn the war but also disapprove of the decision of the Moldovan president to apply for EU membership. “an artificial construction which is useless and which will soon crumble”.

The question of Moldova’s EU membership is central to the country’s political divisions. The centre-right Action and Solidarity party, in power for a year, is pro-European. As for the Socialist Party, in power from 2016 to 2021, it is traditionally pro-Russian. Corn “Moldova has been largely oriented towards Europe for several years now”, notes Mihai Mogildea. The state signed an association agreement with the EU in 2014, still in force today, and exports 70% of its production to the EU. According to a survey conducted by Magenta Consulting (in English), 61% of Moldovans approve of the request of their country, the poorest on the continent, to join the EU. A wish that will probably not come true “before years”, judges the expert. Not enough to discourage the Moldovans, as long “people here are for it, because they already see the EU intervening at the local level”. Mostly, “the electorate cannot be convinced that the EU is bad, the country is too poor”he still believes.

“Europe is the only way”, slice Natalia, crossed in the main aisle of the central market, wrapped in a large fur coat. “I am Russian-speaking, my father is Bulgarian and my mother Russian, but we understand that our future is linked to Europe”, says this airline employee. The migratory flows prove him right. “Russia no longer attracts, people mainly go to Europe, especially to Romania”, explains Victoria Olari. A movement “inevitable”, according to her. If Moldova remains free to look to the West.