The European Union adopted a new round of sanctions against Russia on Wednesday 9 March. This aims to oppose the invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24. Thus, 160 new personalities have joined the blacklist drawn up by EU countries. The question of the effectiveness of the sanctions adopted by the Twenty-Seven but also by the other countries of the globe nevertheless arises. It is however crucial on the eve of the summit of heads of state and government of the European Union, Thursday and Friday in Versailles.
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According to many experts, these economic measures can hardly stop the invasion in Ukraine, even if the already serious consequences will be amplified: banking activity is hit hard to limit the financing capacities of the war, the transactions of the Russian central bank with Western countries are blocked, the main banks of Russia are deprived of the Swift interbank communication system and the ruble plunges. In addition, many Western companies are suspending their activities in Russia, laying off thousands of employees, not to mention the closure of NATO and European Union airspace to Russian planes. Finally, the US embargo on Russian gas and oil imports will weaken the energy sector somewhat.
However, these measures will not prevent Putin from continuing the war, according to several Western diplomats. Indeed, the sanctions do not directly penalize the Kremlin, which technically has the means to continue the war for a long time. The daily life of Vladimir Putin and his inner circle will not change, nor that of the first circles of power. In some Western embassies, sanctions against Russian oligarchs are believed to have a limited impact on fortunes that run into billions of dollars. Finally, the Russian generals active in the war wanted by Putin show for the moment no reluctance to crush Ukraine. It is only when this caste will feel threatened in its vital interests that it could let go of the master of the Kremlin. Hence the addition, Wednesday morning, of the 160 names on the EU blacklist.
On the other hand, economic sanctions have an undeniable effect on the Russian economy and its people. This is also the unacknowledged objective of this type of measure: to make the population revolt. But that never works. We have seen it for years in Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea and now in Afghanistan. In Russia, the few minority demonstrations were brutally repressed by thousands of arrests.
Above all, one should not underestimate the immense support that Vladimir Putin has enjoyed for more than twenty years in Russia. The former KGB lieutenant colonel has been elected and re-elected president four times since 2000, always in the first round. Each time, his score went up to 71%, without even having to stuff the ballot boxes. It is therefore a constant and obstinate choice of Russian voters, despite all the excesses of a regime that is leading them today to war.