Emmanuel Macron in favor of “targeted European sanctions” against Moscow

The targeted sanctions could notably target Russian oligarchs close to Vladimir Putin, whose accounts and assets in Europe would be frozen. An option seriously considered by the services of Josep Borrell, the head of European diplomacy. More generally, the European Union says it is working on a whole package of measures, the degree of implementation of which would depend on Russia’s level of military commitment. For Ursula Von der Leyen, and in the event of a war triggered by Moscow, the financial sanctions imposed by Europe would see Russia practically cut off from international markets. The President of the Commission also mentions economic sanctions affecting goods produced by Europeans and which the Russians can hardly do without in order to modernize and diversify their economy, we are thinking in particular of technology.

Europeans are cautious about sanctions against Russia because they know that by going too far in sanctions, they risk penalizing themselves, as the European Union and Russia are linked on a commercial level. Russia, which remains the fifth export market for Europe with more than 80 billion euros of goods last year, despite the European sanctions already imposed in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea. Russia, on the other hand, exports wheat, and above all gas, which the Union can hardly do without, since it represents 40% of its supplies. A gas whose drying up by Vladimir Putin would add a little more to the energy bill of millions of European households. This is why the Europeans are so reluctant to give up the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline linking Russia to Germany, a gas pipeline that the Americans would like to close even before it is put into service in the event of a Russian attack.

If we rely on Monday, February 21, which the Moscow stock exchange has just known, Russian business circles are reacting very badly. Its flagship index, the RTS, fell by more than 13% at the close, a real crash, even before Vladimir Putin’s announcements. It was also a dark day for the ruble, which fell against the euro and the dollar, investors fearing a massive flight of capital in the event of a conflict. Not to mention the surge in inflation and the fall in growth that would result. Disastrous prospects for an economy already weakened by years of isolation.