$1.69. This is the price we had to pay for a liter of regular gas in certain places in Quebec a few days ago.
This rapid increase in the cost of fuel is increasing the enthusiasm for electric vehicles, which could already be seen in a KPMG survey published last year which estimated that 75% of Quebecers are considering an electric vehicle as their next new vehicle. However, these are trickling in from dealerships. For the majority of models, we are talking about several months, or even more than a year of waiting.
At a time when the governments of Quebec and Canada want to accelerate the sale of electric vehicles, this lack of availability represents a real challenge for consumers. Some respond that the problem of vehicle availability is widespread due to the shortage of microprocessors and that is why it is difficult to get your hands on an electric vehicle. And yet…
More and more electric vehicles are available… elsewhere.
According to Statistics Canada, ZEVs (zero-emission vehicles: 100% electric and plug-in hybrids) accounted for 9.5% of sales in Quebec in the third quarter of 2021. While this may seem like an interesting development, Quebec is being overtaken by others :
British Columbia: 11.9% of sales in 3and quarter 2021
California: 12.4% for the year 2021
China: 21% in December 2021
France: 24.5% in December 2021
England: 33% in December 2021
Germany: 34% in November 2021
Sweden: 60% in December 2021
Norway: 90% in December 2021
Thus, where regulations are more restrictive, car manufacturers offer and sell more vehicles.
An advantageous transition
Accelerating the transition to electric vehicles is economically beneficial.
According to the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, “in 2019, Quebec’s trade balance deficit reached $11.7 billion. Quebec’s hydrocarbon imports… reached $5.6 billion and therefore represented the equivalent of 48% of the trade balance deficit”.
According to the Quebec government’s regulatory impact analysis report, “the project to tighten the ZEV standard would result in estimated benefits of approximately $10.4 billion”. However, in its new ZEV standard project, the government is instead proposing not to accelerate this transition through regulatory measures… for the next seven years. As can be read in full in the same report, “does not observe that the proposed tightening of the ZEV standard would not result in any increase in the number of EVs on the roads for the first years of application since it is estimated that the number of EVs on the roads will exceed the minimum credit requirements. The new ZEV standard would only become binding from 2029, which will accelerate the adoption of EVs to enable the achievement of the objectives of the EPI 2030.”
Consumers therefore risk having to continue to wait for their electric vehicle for months or even more than a year… which not all of them can or do not want to do. With global demand for ZEVs outstripping supply, manufacturers will send them as a priority to where the regulations are the most restrictive.
In addition, according to government data, this project would reduce GHG emissions from light vehicles by only 13% by 2030, far from the objective of 37.5%. Quebec therefore risks having to buy carbon credits abroad, which would cause a flight of capital that could cost up to $16.2 billion to emitting companies here.
While we welcome the Quebec government’s desire to accelerate the sale of electric vehicles, the zero emission standard project as proposed is inadequate to meet the challenges of climate change and the adoption of electric vehicles. This is why we recommend that it adopt a more effective and ambitious zero-emissions standard so that we reach 100% of ZEV sales by 2030 or, at the very least, follow the example of British Columbia, which is aiming for 90 % of ZEV sales in 2030 and 100% in 2035. Consumers will thus have easier access to electric vehicles. Once this measure is combined with others, which promote the development of public transit, active transportation, electric car-sharing and electric carpooling, the environment and the economy of Québec will only be better off.
If Quebec really wants to be a leader in the electrification of transportation and the fight against climate change, it cannot be satisfied with comparing itself to the worst provinces and countries. He must compare himself to the best… and act accordingly.