Coming out of the pandemic, the Legault government must not give in to the temptation of austerity to absorb the emergency expenses of the past two years, warn researchers from the Institute for Socio-economic Research and Information (IRIS).
In anticipation of the provincial budget which should be tabled next month, the researchers point out that Quebec will have to tackle major challenges: from the overhaul of the health system to the fight against climate change, including the protection of people in a financially precarious situation.
“We must at all costs avoid returning to austerity policies”, immediately launches in an interview Guillaume Hébert, researcher at IRIS and co-author of a series of new studies published on Wednesday by IRIS, which propose food for thought for the Quebec government. “It’s for prevention. Austerity doesn’t seem to be on the agenda at the moment, but we want to make sure it stays that way,” he continues.
According to her colleague Julia Posca, also a researcher at IRIS, “the scale of the expenditure that was made during the COVID-19 pandemic could bring this injunction back”, with a view to cleaning up public finances. “The declared desire of François Legault’s government to quickly return to a balanced budget and reduce the debt burden in the economy clearly shows that public finances will once again be the subject of debate in the months and years to come. come,” she wrote.
The increase in government spending caused by the pandemic has had the effect of increasing the weight of Quebec’s public debt. In 2019-20, the ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP) was 43.2%. It rose to 46.8% in 2020-2021. But according to Mme Posca, recourse to austerity policies is not justified since Quebec’s public finances remain “in an enviable position” — especially since the structural reforms linked to this type of policy have “deleterious effects” on the quality as well as the accessibility of public services, she recalls.
The researcher suggests, among other things, the partial or total suspension of payments to the Generations Fund. “Such a measure would allow the government to reduce the budget deficit, an objective that is dear to it, without having to make sacrifices that will hurt the population,” she notes.Have
The crisis that hides others
According to Guillaume Hébert, the recovery of the economy must not, however, cause the Government of Quebec to lose sight of the other major challenges it faces. “The pandemic is one crisis among many others”, he underlines, citing as examples the climate crisis, wealth inequalities or even the fragility of the health system, which has been hard hit for two years. “This is the right time to ask fundamental questions about the functioning of our societies,” he adds.
According to Julia Posca, we must “address” the problems that have been highlighted by the pandemic and “fix” things. The researcher believes that the government must give itself the means to make the necessary investments to strengthen public services and accelerate the ecological transition, “two essential avenues for overcoming the social, health and environmental problems that the current economic model is causing. “. How? ‘Or’ What ? By questioning “the dogma of the zero deficit” and by seeking new sources of income, for example the introduction of a new tax on wealth or the fight against tax havens, she proposes.
If the government chooses to opt for a return to normal “without a radical change in our ways of doing things”, there would be great risks, adds Guillaume Hébert, such as a deterioration of public services and an erosion of confidence in the government. ‘State. “There are much more important needs in our societies at present than the balancing of public finances, which are moreover in rather good shape,” he continues.
The IRIS research will be unveiled as part of the colloquium “After the pandemic: austerity, recovery or transition”, which is organized by Saint Paul University and which takes place on Wednesday and Thursday.