Emmanuel Macron’s entourage has been hammering it for several days: the objective is “de-escalation”. After already three phone calls, Emmanuel Macron meets face-to-face this time with Vladimir Poutine, in the Kremlin. An intense diplomatic ballet opens Monday to try to defuse the crisis around Ukraine. Westerners accuse Moscow of having massed tens of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian border for a potential invasion, which Russia denies, claiming only to guarantee its security.
President Macron, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, is expected in Moscow on Monday February 7 around 4 p.m. and the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin could last part of the evening. It will end with a joint press conference, according to the Élysée. They find themselves in a completely different context, at the height of a major crisis, with the threat of a military conflict at the borders of Ukraine.
According to the Elysée, Vladimir Poutine would have said on the telephone last week to Emmanuel Macron that he wanted to see him, for “get to the bottom of things” with him. The bottom line, for the Kremlin, is to overhaul the architecture of security and military alliances in Europe. Emmanuel Macron said he was ready to discuss it. But France obviously cannot do anything alone in this area.
And the French President’s objective will first be to obtain a sign of “goodwill”, something that can allow us to talk about de-escalating the tension while 100,000 Russian soldiers are increasing the maneuvers on the borders of Ukraine. For Vladimir Putin, the current configuration is already a diplomatic success: he has succeeded in forcing Westerners to take into account his demands in terms of security. The question is whether that will be enough to get him to make a concession.
Nothing to do with the Russian offensive in Georgia in 2008 or with the capture of Crimea in 2014 argues the head of state himself. “Our role is preventive, we must reduce the tension to avoid an armed conflict“, he confides to our colleagues from Sunday newspaper.
And his close guard to argue: “In a head-to-head, we can say things to each other more than during a video“.
Until recently, the relationship between the two men was very strained. They have not been seen since the summer of 2019, when Emmanuel Macron invited Vladimir Poutine to Fort de Brégançon, officially because of the Covid. But also because the Russians weren’t interested. The French side may be a little more, but it was also hampered by some of the European countries which do not want a bilateral dialogue with Russia. This crisis has, in fact, opened up a space for discussion. Emmanuel Macron has also positioned himself a little by representing by multiplying the phone calls before his trip today.
Sunday, February 6 in the evening, he had American President Joe Biden, after having notably telephoned the three leaders of the Baltic States in the afternoon, in a logic of “coordination“, says the Elysée.
Still, this exercise is a double-edged sword for the head of state. If the situation calms down, he refines his international stature; if it deteriorates, it will give the impression of boxing in a vacuum. Perilous 2 months before the 1st round of the presidential election, some judge. Comment from a government adviser:We always say that the international does not win an election, but it can lose points.
“Yes there is a part of risk, but Emmanuel Macron has always liked to take it”
A relative of Emmanuel Macronat franceinfo
After Moscow, the French president is expected in Kiev on Tuesday, where he is to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.