Donald Trump plans to hold a pivotal phone call with Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential 30-day ceasefire and territorial negotiations regarding Ukraine. While Putin shows openness to a truce, he has set conditions that may hinder full territorial returns. Experts suggest that Russia aims to maintain control over strategic areas, including energy assets like the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. Ukraine might consider presidential elections during the ceasefire to legitimize its leadership and facilitate future negotiations.
Trump’s Upcoming Call with Putin: A Potential Path to Peace
In a significant diplomatic effort, Donald Trump has announced plans to engage in a crucial phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, March 16. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump expressed his intention to persuade Putin to agree to a 30-day ceasefire. “We will discuss the allocation of certain assets,” he stated, emphasizing topics that include “lands” and “power plants.” This conversation might pressure Ukraine to make certain concessions to facilitate the Russian president’s acceptance of the ceasefire proposal that was recently approved by Kyiv.
Putin has indicated a willingness to consider a truce but has outlined specific conditions, citing the need to address “serious questions” beforehand. The primary agenda for their discussion is expected to revolve around territorial sharing, as Moscow currently occupies approximately 20% of Ukraine, with significant control over regions such as Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson.
Territorial Negotiations and Power Dynamics
According to Carole Grimaud, an expert in Russian geopolitics from Paul-Valéry University, it is unlikely that Russia will fully return the occupied territories. “What is certain is that Russia will not return the territories in full. They are even pushing further by wanting the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from these territories within the administrative borders,” she explained. This strategy may allow Moscow to claim certain cities that its forces currently do not control.
On the U.S. side, Mike Waltz, a security advisor, has suggested that the Biden administration’s approach of attempting to liberate every inch of Ukrainian territory could lead to an “endless war.” Furthermore, Putin has drawn a firm line regarding the introduction of European peacekeepers, warning that such a move could escalate into “direct armed conflict.” However, there may be room for negotiation regarding the demilitarization of parts of Donbass, potentially creating a neutral buffer zone.
Discussions may also touch upon the strategic Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which has been under Russian control since September 2022. Grimaud suggests that Russia is keen to maintain its grip on this critical infrastructure to secure its energy interests. “If you control a country’s energy, you wield significant power,” she noted, highlighting the implications for both countries in the ongoing conflict.
As negotiations unfold, Ukraine may consider organizing presidential elections during the proposed ceasefire. Grimaud speculates that this could be a strategic move to legitimize leadership and negotiations moving forward. Given Putin’s refusal to engage with President Volodymyr Zelensky, this election could pave the way for new discussions on territorial claims and peace agreements.
Should both parties agree to this electoral approach, it will be essential to establish a plan for conducting elections in a country that has faced relentless bombardment for over three years. A respected ceasefire could enable a calmer environment for voters, possibly allowing for the oversight of foreign observers to ensure transparency and legitimacy in the electoral process. Ultimately, a newly elected president may play a crucial role in finalizing any peace agreements.