Donald Trump has accused the Mexican government of collaborating with drug cartels, threatening a 25 percent tariff on imports unless Mexico secures its border. In response, President Claudia Sheinbaum has intensified anti-crime efforts, including deploying soldiers to the border. Trump’s labeling of cartels as terrorist organizations raises concerns of military intervention. Historical parallels to past U.S. interventions in Central America highlight complex relations, with ongoing drug-related corruption complicating cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico, as well as Central American nations.
Trump’s Accusations and Mexico’s Response
At the conclusion of January, Donald Trump leveled serious allegations against the Mexican government, asserting that it was colluding with drug cartels responsible for the influx of illegal immigrants and substances like fentanyl into the United States. As March approaches, Trump is set to make a pivotal decision regarding the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on Mexican imports, a move that could be rescinded if Mexico effectively secures its border.
The potential tariffs could lead to a significant recession in Mexico, prompting President Claudia Sheinbaum to vehemently defend her administration against Trump’s claims. Since taking office in October, she has ramped up efforts against organized crime, resulting in the arrest of over 10,000 individuals involved in gang activities. She has also deployed an additional 10,000 soldiers to the border in a bid to alleviate tensions with the Trump administration.
The Complex Landscape of Drug Cartels
However, a more pressing concern looms over U.S.-Mexico relations. Trump categorized eight drug cartels as terrorist organizations, six of which hail from Mexico, including the notorious Sinaloa cartel, recognized as the leading producer of fentanyl. Additionally, groups such as Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), which operates across Central America, and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua are also highlighted as significant threats.
Mike Waltz, serving as Trump’s national security advisor, advocates for a robust response to these gangs akin to the military actions once taken against the Islamic State. He references a post-9/11 law that empowers the president to deploy military forces abroad against recognized terrorist entities, raising the specter of possible airstrikes or special operations in Mexico.
The invocation of military intervention in Central America evokes memories of a tumultuous past, where the U.S. employed extreme measures during the Cold War to counter leftist movements in countries like El Salvador and Nicaragua. The 1990 overthrow of Manuel Noriega in Panama serves as a stark reminder of these historical interventions, despite Noriega’s earlier cooperation with the DEA against drug cartels.
The assassination of Pablo Escobar in 1993 marked the beginning of the DEA’s “Kingpin Strategy,” aimed at dismantling drug organizations by eliminating their leaders. Unfortunately, similar operations, including the capture of “El Chapo” Guzmán in 2016 and “El Mayo” Zambada in July 2024, have not yielded the desired outcomes, leading to increased fragmentation among cartels and intensified violence.
Armando Vargas of the security think tank México Evalúa notes that El Mayo’s recent detention, conducted without the Mexican government’s prior knowledge, signals a profound lack of trust from the U.S. towards Mexico. Vargas argues that organized crime is often supported by elements within the state, a reality the U.S. recognizes.
El Mayo has reportedly indicated to U.S. authorities that he possesses critical information that could destabilize Mexican politics. He has urged the need for negotiations regarding his return to Mexico, suggesting that his disclosures could jeopardize the fragile diplomatic relations between the two countries.
In 2024, investigations by the DEA suggested that former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador may have received funds from the Sinaloa cartel during his 2006 campaign. While concrete evidence remains elusive, suspicions of his leniency towards cartel activities continue to circulate, further damaging the integrity of Mexican politics in the eyes of the U.S.
In 2024, Genaro García Luna, who served as Mexico’s security minister from 2006 to 2012, was sentenced to 38 years in prison for his connections with the Sinaloa cartel. The arrest of Salvador Cienfuegos, a former defense minister, in 2020 led to a diplomatic spat when López Obrador threatened to withdraw cooperation with the DEA, resulting in Cienfuegos’ release.
According to Vargas, the Mexican government faces a significant challenge: achieving peace cannot solely rely on violence but rather requires negotiations with gangs willing to cease hostilities. However, this approach conflicts with U.S. interests, as illustrated by the cases of García Luna and Cienfuegos.
The struggle for effective cooperation in drug enforcement is exemplified by Honduras, where organized crime has significantly infiltrated political and economic structures, making it a prime transit point for drug trafficking. Cocaine production is also on the rise in this region.
In 2008, then-President Manuel Zelaya came under scrutiny due to allegations of ties to drug cartels. The extent of U.S. involvement in Zelaya’s military ousting in 2009 remains uncertain, but allegations of organized crime connections among the coup’s orchestrators have surfaced. Notably, the son of Zelaya’s successor was arrested and sentenced for drug trafficking offenses.
Juan Orlando Hernández, who succeeded Lobo Sosa, was initially viewed as a valuable ally in the war on drugs, particularly after he began extraditing drug lords to the U.S. However, following the arrest of his brother on drug charges, evidence emerged implicating Hernández himself as a leader of drug trafficking operations.
Consequently, the Biden administration backed Xiomara Castro in the 2021 elections, with Castro pledging to extradite Hernández. In early 2022, he was extradited and subsequently sentenced to 45 years in prison. However, the partnership with Castro’s government quickly soured due to allegations against her family related to Venezuelan drug gangs.
In mid-2024, new evidence surfaced implicating Zelaya’s brother in a drug cartel scandal, prompting Castro to threaten to terminate the extradition treaty with the U.S. But under pressure from the Trump administration, she retracted this threat, indicating the precarious nature of U.S.-Central American relations.
Similar to Honduras and Guatemala, the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) operates in El Salvador, where it has historically terrorized communities. In response, President Nayib Bukele declared war on the gang in 2019, extending a state of emergency that has led to widespread arrests and accusations of human rights abuses.
Reports from investigative outlets have surfaced, suggesting that Bukele’s government may have engaged in secret negotiations with MS-13 leaders, raising suspicions about their protection from U.S. legal actions. This has led to sanctions against Bukele’s administration by the Biden administration, further complicating relations between El Salvador and the U.S.
With the shift in political dynamics following Trump’s election, Bukele’s position has somewhat improved. The self-identified Trump supporter even extended an invitation to American Secretary of State Marco Rubio, signaling his willingness to align with U.S. interests amidst the ongoing challenges posed by organized crime.