2024 has emerged as the hottest year on record globally and in Germany, with temperatures surpassing 2023 by 0.3 degrees. The German Weather Service reports a significant increase in average temperatures, reaching 10.9 degrees, alongside unprecedented rainfall levels. Experts warn of a potential rise in maximum temperatures to 46-48 degrees by century’s end if trends continue. Despite expectations for a cooler year post-El Niño, widespread elevated ocean temperatures are exacerbating land warming, contributing to extreme weather events.
2024 has set a new benchmark for high temperatures, marking it as the hottest year on record both in Germany and around the globe. This alarming trend has raised concerns among climate experts.
According to the German Weather Service (DWD), 2024 has become the warmest year since systematic temperature monitoring began in 1881. By mid-December, this was already evident, with DWD spokesperson Uwe Kirsche noting, “What is particularly concerning is that this year surpassed 2023 by a remarkable 0.3 degrees. This indicates a rapid pace of climate change.”
Compounding the temperature issues, 2024 has also experienced significantly higher levels of rainfall. The extraordinarily mild winter of 2023/2024 and an unusually warm spring contributed to unprecedented precipitation levels, as highlighted in the DWD’s preliminary annual report.
Insights from Karsten Schwanke on 2024’s Weather Extremes
Unprecedented Acceleration of Global Warming
On a global scale, 2024 is predicted to be the hottest year on record, as outlined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) based in Geneva. “Climate change is manifesting almost daily through increasingly frequent extreme weather events with severe consequences,” stated WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. More detailed temperature assessments will be released by the WMO next year.
The DWD reports that the warming trend in Germany continued in 2024, following record highs over the past two years. This year, the average temperature reached 10.9 degrees, which is 2.7 degrees higher than the internationally recognized reference period of 1961 to 1990. Compared to the warmer reference period of 1991 to 2020, this marks an increase of 1.6 degrees. Evaluating current figures against long-term averages aids in understanding the broader context of climate change, according to the DWD.
Potential Temperature Peaks of 48 Degrees?
In forecasts made back in 2018, experts anticipated that the Paris Climate Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees would likely be surpassed between 2030 and 2052. However, ARD weather expert Karsten Schwanke remarked, “Here we are in 2024, having clearly exceeded that threshold.” This indicates that global warming is accelerating beyond even the most dire predictions from climate models.
“If this trend continues and we fail to take action, we could see maximum temperatures in Germany reaching between 46 to 48 degrees by the end of the century,” Schwanke warned. “This is a scenario for which our nation is ill-equipped.”
Last year was notable for temperature extremes due to an El Niño phenomenon. At the beginning of 2024, many scientists speculated that the year might be cooler since El Niño had ended. However, Schwanke pointed out that while El Niño is no longer a factor, “We’ve never witnessed all other ocean regions simultaneously exhibiting elevated temperatures.” This phenomenon is contributing to increased warming on land.
Record Temperature Ranges: From -19 to +36 Degrees
The coldest temperature recorded this year was minus 19.5 degrees in Leutkirch-Herlazhofen, Baden-Württemberg, in January. Conversely, the highest temperature reached a scorching 36.5 degrees on August 13 in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler, Rhineland-Palatinate.
Initial assessments by the DWD indicate that approximately 903 liters of precipitation per square meter fell in 2024, significantly surpassing the average of 789 liters from 1961 to 1990 and 791 liters from 1991 to 2020.
Additionally, the duration of sunshine exceeded expectations based on the 1961 to 1990 reference period, with nearly 1,700 hours of sunshine recorded compared to a target of 1,544 hours, according to the DWD. This preliminary report is based on early evaluations from around 2,000 measurement stations across the country.
This topic was covered by Deutschlandfunk on December 30, 2024, at 14:00 during their news broadcast.