Recent months have seen a significant shift in the Sahel region, with countries like Chad and Senegal asserting independence from French influence. This transformation reflects growing discontent among local populations and a desire for sovereignty, as evidenced by the termination of defense agreements and calls for the closure of French military bases. A younger, more globally aware generation is pushing for change, while alternative powers like China and Russia gain influence, challenging Western dominance in the area.
Historic Changes in the Sahel Region
In recent months, the West African Sahel has undergone a remarkable transformation that can be considered historic, despite the cautious use of such a term. The African governments involved in this upheaval now perceive themselves as genuinely independent from French influence, a sentiment echoed by a significant portion of the populace.
This shift has not only altered the dynamics between former West African colonies and France but has also impacted their relationships with the broader Western world. The ramifications of this upheaval are poised to influence the global balance of power and security frameworks.
The Oversight of Western Powers
What led to France’s swift loss of influence in the Sahel after decades of dominance? Surprisingly, the West has largely overlooked the developments in the region.
A revealing incident occurred in September 2023 when youth in Chad’s capital, N’Djamena, showcased their plans for COP28, seeking sponsorship for their attendance at the World Climate Conference. A European diplomat present dismissed the potential for a coup in Chad, declaring the relationship with France to be stable. However, on the streets, sentiments were shifting; local vendors expressed hostility towards foreigners, indicating a growing resentment towards French military presence and political influence.
Fast forward nearly a year, and President Mahamat Idriss Déby announced the termination of Chad’s defense agreement with France, marking a significant setback for Paris. France had maintained one of its largest military bases in Africa at N’Djamena since the country’s independence in 1960. The expectation of withdrawal of approximately 1,000 French troops from Chad has become apparent, with the first Mirage jets already repatriated.
On the same day, Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye called for the closure of French military bases in his country, emphasizing Senegal’s sovereignty. The message was clear: foreign military presence was no longer compatible with independence.
The West’s failure to recognize these signs reflects a broader misperception of the Sahel’s political landscape.
Misunderstanding the Sahel’s Socio-Political Climate
To grasp the full picture, it’s essential to consider the role of expatriates, who serve as the primary sources of information for the West. Many diplomats and business representatives tend to engage only within elite circles, often detached from the realities faced by the majority of the population. As security situations worsen in Sahel countries, their movements become restricted to affluent neighborhoods, further isolating them from the everyday lives of locals.
Moreover, media coverage often employs a Western-centric lens, failing to provide continuous reports on the region’s developments. Instead, Sahel nations often re-enter the Western spotlight only during crises—coups, wars, or other calamities—leading to a skewed perception of their political and social landscapes.
France, as a former colonial power, has also been slow to recognize the growing discontent among Sahel populations. Many now view France as increasingly arrogant, promoting equality while not genuinely considering African voices.
For instance, in Mali, after a coup and deteriorating relations with the military government, the French military was criticized for acting as an occupying force, failing to coordinate with local armed forces. In Senegal, the legacy of colonial injustices, such as the Thiaroye massacre, continues to fuel resentment towards France.
A New Generation Seeking Change
Additionally, France has underestimated the aspirations of Africa’s youthful population, which averages just 19 years old. This tech-savvy and globally aware generation is inspired by movements like “Black Lives Matter” and is no longer burdened by feelings of inferiority towards former colonial powers. They are actively demanding an end to subjugation.
Furthermore, there are now formidable alternatives to the Western industrial nations. Countries like China, Turkey, Russia, India, and the United Arab Emirates are making strides in establishing influence in the West African Sahel and beyond. If the West, particularly France, wishes to maintain its relevance, it must present compelling alternatives to these rising powers.