South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has strengthened the country’s geopolitical stance in Asia through close collaboration with the U.S. and attempts to improve relations with Japan. However, his recent martial law declaration raises concerns about the alliance’s stability and the risk of North Korean provocations. The evolving dynamics between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, alongside potential shifts in leadership, threaten to undermine progress made in regional security cooperation, creating an increasingly unstable political landscape.
Strengthening South Korea’s Geopolitical Influence
During his brief tenure, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has notably enhanced the nation’s geopolitical presence in Asia. Collaborating closely with the United States and managing a delicate relationship with Japan, he has aimed to counteract the threats posed by North Korea and China. However, the recent declaration and subsequent lifting of martial law raise questions about the sustainability of his leadership and the future of his geopolitical initiatives.
This situation poses a potential risk to the achievements made under his administration, particularly concerning the stability of American security interests in Asia. The implications are evident in three critical areas: the future of South Korea’s alliance with the USA, the evolving relationship with Japan, and the looming threat from North Korea.
Uncertainty Surrounding the US-South Korea Alliance
The alliance between South Korea and the United States now faces significant uncertainty. According to Mason Richey, a professor of international politics at Hankuk University in Seoul, Yoon’s martial law declaration was a major concern for the U.S. He did not notify General Paul LaCamera, the commander of American forces in Korea, before making the announcement public, which Richey describes as “completely unacceptable” from an American perspective.
Yoon’s actions have introduced unforeseen risks, particularly the possibility of North Korean military actions that could implicate the United States, which has nearly 30,000 troops stationed in South Korea. Any conflict in the region could automatically involve American forces.
By attempting a political coup, Yoon has eroded trust between the allies, leading to fears that the U.S. might lose a key partner amid a potential shift towards closer ties with China and a renewed bond with Japan. The trilateral security alliance, a significant foreign policy win for President Joe Biden, Yoon, and the Japanese government, now hangs in the balance.
Challenges to Japan-South Korea Relations
Japan has long pursued closer security cooperation with South Korea, but tensions have escalated due to historical disputes stemming from Japan’s colonial past. Yoon’s predecessor, Moon Jae In, allowed these tensions to hinder security and diplomatic collaboration.
After his election in 2022, Yoon sought to mend relations with Japan, despite facing backlash that affected his popularity. Security expert Richey warns that Japan may be the biggest loser if Yoon’s presidency ends prematurely. There was an expectation that the three nations would have until the end of Yoon’s term in 2025 to solidify their cooperation, but the current crisis has compressed that timeline.
Richey predicts that a new leftist government could unravel the trilateral agreement. While some progressives within the Democratic Party recognize the importance of working with Japan, skepticism remains at the leadership level, particularly from party leader Lee Jae Myung. The criticisms surrounding Yoon’s martial law declaration and Japan policy signal an inclination to undermine trilateral relations should the Democrats regain power.
Increased Risk of North Korean Provocations
The immediate concern is that North Korea may exploit the political turmoil in South Korea. Although no actions have been taken so far, Richey notes that North Korea appears cautious, likely waiting to observe the unfolding political landscape. The North has established a favorable relationship with Russia, providing military support in exchange for economic assistance and technological advancements.
North Korea might bide its time until a potential Donald Trump presidency, hoping for a new leftist administration in South Korea that might pursue dialogue. The dynamics today differ significantly from 2018 when Trump engaged Kim Jong Un in historic summits, driven by a left-leaning South Korean government.
Currently, North Korea views South Korea as an adversary and has abandoned any aspirations for reunification. The situation is further complicated by the increasing tensions between the U.S. and China, as well as the fallout from the failed Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam in 2019. While Trump may seek to engage with Kim again, it remains uncertain whether Kim would reciprocate, given previous disappointments.
Instability in the Asian Political Landscape
The potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency has amplified global uncertainty, particularly in Asia. The future of alliances and how Trump will navigate relations with China, North Korea, and Russia remains unclear.
For South Korea, beginning a new Trump administration with a leadership void could be detrimental. The departure of a crucial advocate for improved relations with Japan might embolden China, North Korea, and Russia, signaling a weakening of a fundamental pillar of American alliances in Asia. Consequently, this could exacerbate the existing instability in the region.