Following Bashar al-Assad’s fall, Syrians express hope for a stable future after years of civil war. However, the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham raises concerns about potential authoritarian rule or a more inclusive governance approach. The new leadership faces severe economic challenges and must navigate Syria’s diverse demographics to avoid fragmentation. While aspirations for democracy linger, the complexities of the situation suggest a difficult path ahead, highlighting the potential for disillusionment amid ongoing struggles for change.
What lies ahead for Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad? On December 8, many Syrians rejoiced at the collapse of the former president and his family’s rule, a regime that has governed the nation for over five decades. While this significant shift has ignited optimism for a more stable future after twelve years of civil war that has devastated the country, the rise of the rebels now in control raises some apprehensions.
The coalition led by the radical Islamist faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, under the leadership of Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, has prompted questions about the future of Syria. Didier Billion, deputy director at IRIS and a political science expert focusing on the Middle East, shares his insights.
Possible Outcomes for Syria After Assad
Predicting the exact political landscape post-Assad is challenging, but two primary scenarios are emerging. One possibility is that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham could establish a regime where it maintains complete dominance, leading to a return to authoritarianism with little regard for democratic freedoms. This scenario would mark a significant setback for the Syrian people.
Conversely, there’s a chance that this group, despite its radical roots, may seek to forge compromises with various internal factions and international actors. This prospect remains uncertain at this juncture.
Notably, when Hayat Tahrir al-Sham governed Idlib province, it demonstrated some willingness to compromise, albeit minimally. The regime was primarily authoritarian and implemented Sharia law, yet Christians were permitted to conduct masses—albeit with restrictions on symbols and sound. This indicates that al-Joulani may be open to dialogue under certain circumstances.
The Complex Reality Facing al-Joulani and Syria’s Future
Syria is currently in a dire state, grappling with severe economic challenges. An estimated 80% of the population lives below the poverty line. To secure international assistance, al-Joulani will likely need to adopt a more pragmatic approach. The devastation from the civil war has left millions displaced, and many citizens are facing starvation.
Transitioning from a militant leader to the governor of a nation comes with immense responsibilities for al-Joulani. The landscape has shifted dramatically; even radical entities often find themselves compelled to make strategic concessions when they assume power.
Another significant challenge for the new leadership is managing Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious composition. The country is a patchwork of various communities, including Kurds, Alawites, Druze, and Armenians. The critical question remains whether the leadership will opt for a highly centralized authority or choose to share power with these different groups. The outcome of this decision could determine the future stability of Syria.
If al-Joulani dismisses the need for inclusivity, the risk of fragmentation within Syria increases. This potential ‘partition’ wouldn’t create separate nations but could lead to regions within Syria governed by different entities, each with varying degrees of autonomy. The Alawite region along the coast and Kurdish territories in the northeast are examples of areas that could function independently, reflecting the country’s existing divisions and resentments.
Currently, while there has been no significant outbreak of violence, the situation remains fluid, and the risk of retaliatory actions looms large amidst this chaotic transition.
Democratic Aspirations Amidst Uncertainty
In light of Assad’s fall, several Western nations have expressed hopes for a democratic transition in Syria. However, such a notion may be overly optimistic and unrealistic given the current context. Engaging in discussions about democracy with al-Joulani overlooks the complexities of his background and the political realities on the ground.
While over six million Syrians have fled their homeland in search of refuge, many have absorbed democratic ideals that could influence their perspectives on governance. Yet, this influence is not guaranteed. The resilience of Syrian society, evidenced during the early protests of 2011-2012, reflects a deep-seated desire for social justice and dignity, even amid adversity.
Despite the immense suffering and loss faced by the Syrian populace, the aspiration for meaningful change endures. The hope for a democratic regime may be rooted in a different understanding than that of Western ideals, but it still signifies a yearning for transformation. As celebrations of the regime’s fall unfold, the potential for disillusionment remains a poignant reminder of the challenges ahead.